Human Gains and Losses from Global Warming: Satisfaction with the Climate in the USA, Winter and Summer, North and South

The scientific understanding of the causes of global warming is based on a vast body of rigorous, peer-reviewed research, but there is little systematic empirical evidence on consequences for humans. Using direct questions about satisfaction with winter and with summer weather, I show that warming’s effects on subjective well-being can be reliably estimated from cross-sectional survey data across a broad temperature spectrum and, moreover, that these effects are large. Combining a US national survey (N = 2295) and standard National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data on actual month-by-month temperatures at each location over many years, shows that changes to be expected from the widely discussed, allegedly “dangerous”, 2 °C of global warming are both familiar and small, equivalent to moving from Wisconsin to Michigan, or Virginia to North Carolina, or more generally 180 miles south. Such warming will greatly increase Americans’ satisfaction with winter weather, especially in the north, but somewhat decrease satisfaction with summer weather in both north and south. On balance, the nation benefits slightly. Regional differences are large, with northerners’ gains roughly equivalent to a 1–2 % increase in their GDP, while southerners losses are about the same size. These changes are important, about as large as the combined financial implications of all other aspects of global warming. They have important policy implications, suggesting that prompt action to reduce carbon emissions may not be optimal because that would restrict warming both in the summer and in the south (gains) but also in the winter and in the north (losses).