IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/revepe/v3y2022i2d10.1007_s43253-021-00056-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Profit-led in effect or in appearance alone? Estimating the Irish demand regime given the influence of multinational enterprises

Author

Listed:
  • Ryan Woodgate

    (Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy)

Abstract

Most studies on the demand regime of Ireland tend to find it is profit-led. However, these studies use conventional national accounts statistics, which are grossly distorted in Ireland. Since the activities of multinational enterprises (MNEs) drive real demand on one level and severely distort conventional macroeconomic data on another, the possibility of bias due to omitted variables and measurement error arises. This paper summarizes the real and distortionary effects of MNEs in Ireland, and then adjusts and controls for these effects in an econometric estimation of the underlying Irish demand regime. It also addresses the threat of simultaneity bias by employing a three-stage least-squares approach. Ireland is found to be wage-led once the influence of MNEs is taken into account. Moreover, the average effective corporate tax rate (AECTR) on foreign affiliates in Ireland is found to be statistically significant in explaining investment. These results, alongside indicative foreign affiliate statistics, support the view that the underlying Irish economy is both wage-led and “tax competition-led” (Woodgate, Rev Keynes Econ 8:512–535, 2020), where a lower AECTR has a net positive effect on aggregate demand. It is contended that this beggar-thy-neighbor, tax competition-led regime helps explain why Ireland is profit-led in appearance rather than in effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryan Woodgate, 2022. "Profit-led in effect or in appearance alone? Estimating the Irish demand regime given the influence of multinational enterprises," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 319-350, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:revepe:v:3:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s43253-021-00056-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s43253-021-00056-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s43253-021-00056-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s43253-021-00056-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert A. Blecker, 2016. "Wage-led versus profit-led demand regimes: the long and the short of it," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 4(4), pages 373-390, October.
    2. Robert A Blecker & Michael Cauvel & Y K Kim, 2022. "Systems estimation of a structural model of distribution and demand in the US economy," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 46(2), pages 391-420.
    3. William Milberg & Deborah Winkler, 2010. "Financialisation and the dynamics of offshoring in the USA," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 34(2), pages 275-293, March.
    4. Cem Oyvat & Oğuz Öztunalı & Ceyhun Elgin, 2020. "Wage‐led versus profit‐led demand: A comprehensive empirical analysis," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 458-486, July.
    5. Stephen Kinsella, 2013. "Was Ireland's Celtic Tiger Period Profit-led or Wage-led?," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 572-585, October.
    6. Thomas Tørsløv & Ludvig Wier & Gabriel Zucman, 2023. "The Missing Profits of Nations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(3), pages 1499-1534.
    7. Thomas Obst & Özlem Onaran & Maria Nikolaidi, 2020. "The effects of income distribution and fiscal policy on aggregate demand, investment and the budget balance: the case of Europe1," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 44(6), pages 1221-1243.
    8. Gabriel Zucman, 2014. "Taxing across Borders: Tracking Personal Wealth and Corporate Profits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 121-148, Fall.
    9. William Robert Reed, 2015. "On the Practice of Lagging Variables to Avoid Simultaneity," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(6), pages 897-905, December.
    10. Schmidt, Peter, 1990. "Three-stage least squares with different instruments for different equations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 389-394, March.
    11. Ozlem Onaran & Thomas Obst, 2016. "Wage-led growth in the EU15 member-states: the effects of income distribution on growth, investment, trade balance and inflation," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 40(6), pages 1517-1551.
    12. David Kiefer & Codrina Rada, 2015. "Profit maximising goes global: the race to the bottom," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 39(5), pages 1333-1350.
    13. Bhaduri, Amit & Marglin, Stephen, 1990. "Unemployment and the Real Wage: The Economic Basis for Contesting Political Ideologies," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 14(4), pages 375-393, December.
    14. Aidan Regan & Samuel Brazys, 2018. "Celtic Phoenix or Leprechaun Economics? The Politics of an FDI-led Growth Model in Europe," New Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 223-238, March.
    15. Thomas Wright & Gabriel Zucman, 2018. "The Exorbitant Tax Privilege," NBER Working Papers 24983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Fariha Kamal, 2019. "A Portrait of US Factoryless Goods Producers," NBER Chapters, in: Challenges of Globalization in the Measurement of National Accounts, pages 425-447, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Blecker, Robert A, 1989. "International Competition, Income Distribution and Economic Growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 13(3), pages 395-412, September.
    18. Henningsen, Arne & Hamann, Jeff D., 2007. "systemfit: A Package for Estimating Systems of Simultaneous Equations in R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 23(i04).
    19. José Barrales & Rudiger von Arnim, 2017. "Longer-run distributive cycles: wavelet decompositions for the US, 1948–2011," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 5(2), pages 196-217, April.
    20. Engelbert Stockhammer & Robert Stehrer, 2011. "Goodwin or Kalecki in Demand? Functional Income Distribution and Aggregate Demand in the Short Run," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 506-522, December.
    21. Eeckhout, Jan & De loecker, Jan, 2018. "Global Market Power," CEPR Discussion Papers 13009, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Ryan Woodgate, 2020. "Can tax competition boost demand? Causes and consequences of the global race to the bottom in corporate tax rates," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 8(4), pages 512–535-5, October.
    23. Javier Garcia-Bernardo & Jan Fichtner & Eelke M. Heemskerk & Frank W. Takes, 2017. "Uncovering Offshore Financial Centers: Conduits and Sinks in the Global Corporate Ownership Network," Papers 1703.03016, arXiv.org, revised May 2017.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Schedelik, Michael & Nölke, Andreas & May, Christian & Gomes, Alexandre, 2022. "Dependency revisited: Commodities, commodity-related capital flows and growth models in emerging economies," IPE Working Papers 201/2022, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    2. Ryan Woodgate, 2023. "FDI-led growth models: Sraffian supermultiplier models of export platforms and tax havens," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 491-514, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Woodgate, Ryan, 2021. "Profit-led in effect or in mere appearance? Estimating the Irish demand regime given the influence of multinational enterprises," IPE Working Papers 154/2021, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    2. Robert A Blecker & Michael Cauvel & Y K Kim, 2022. "Systems estimation of a structural model of distribution and demand in the US economy," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 46(2), pages 391-420.
    3. Marques, André M. & Lima, Gilberto Tadeu, 2022. "Testing for Granger causality in quantiles between the wage share in income and productive capacity utilization," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 290-312.
    4. Cícero, Vinicius Curti & Lima, Gilberto Tadeu, 2023. "Functional distribution of income as a determinant of importing behavior: An empirical analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 393-405.
    5. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Sordi, Serena, 2019. "Distributive cycles and endogenous technical change in a BoPC growth model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 216-233.
    6. Robert A. Blecker, 2016. "Wage-led versus profit-led demand regimes: the long and the short of it," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 4(4), pages 373-390, October.
    7. Stefan Ederer & Miriam Rehm, 2021. "Wealth inequality and aggregate demand," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 405-424, May.
    8. Eckhard Hein, 2017. "Post-Keynesian macroeconomics since the mid 1990s: main developments," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 14(2), pages 131-172, September.
    9. Betül Mutlugün, 2022. "Endogenous income distribution and aggregate demand: Empirical evidence from heterogeneous panel structural vector autoregression," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 583-637, May.
    10. Cem Oyvat & Oğuz Öztunalı & Ceyhun Elgin, 2020. "Wage‐led versus profit‐led demand: A comprehensive empirical analysis," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 458-486, July.
    11. Mariolis Theodore & Konstantakis Konstantinos N. & Michaelides Panayotis G. & Tsionas Efthymios G., 2019. "A non-linear Keynesian Goodwin-type endogenous model of the cycle: Bayesian evidence for the USA," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(1), pages 1-16, February.
    12. Enno Schröder, 2020. "Offshoring, employment, and aggregate demand," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 179-204, January.
    13. Jose Barrales‐Ruiz & Ivan Mendieta‐Muñoz & Codrina Rada & Daniele Tavani & Rudiger von Arnim, 2022. "The distributive cycle: Evidence and current debates," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 468-503, April.
    14. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2015. "Wage-led versus profit-led demand: What have we learned? A Kalecki-Minsky view," Working Papers PKWP1512, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    15. Zita Tamasauskiene & Janina Seputiene & Rasa Balvociute & Daiva Berzinskiene-Juozainiene, 2017. "The impact of wage share on domestic demand in the European Union," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(1), pages 115-132, April.
    16. André M. Marques, 2022. "Reviewing demand regimes in open economies with Penn World Table data," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(6), pages 730-751, December.
    17. Michael Cauvel, 2019. "The neo-Goodwinian model reconsidered," Working Papers PKWP1915, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    18. Stockhammer, Engelbert & Rabinovich, Joel & Reddy, Niall, 2017. "Distribution, wealth and demand regimes in historical perspective. USA, UK, France and Germany, 1855-2010," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-5, School of Economics, Kingston University London.
    19. Prante, Franz & Hein, Eckhard & Bramucci, Alessandro, 2021. "Varieties and interdependencies of demand and growth regimes in finance-dominated capitalism," IPE Working Papers 173/2021, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    20. Eckhard Hein, 2020. "Gender Issues in Kaleckian Distribution and Growth Models: On the Macroeconomics of the Gender Wage Gap," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 640-664, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:revepe:v:3:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s43253-021-00056-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.