IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pke/wpaper/pkwp1805.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Distribution, wealth and demand regimes in historical perspective. USA, UK, France and Germany, 1855-2010

Author

Listed:
  • Engelbert Stockhammer
  • Joel Rabinovich
  • Niall Reddy

Abstract

Most empirical macroeconomic research limited to the period since World War II. This paper analyses the effects of changes in income distribution and in private wealth on consumption and investment covering a period from as early as 1855 until 2010 for the UK, France, Germany and USA, based on the dataset of Piketty and Zucman (2014). We contribute to the post-Keynesian debate on the nature of demand regimes, mainstream analyses of wealth effects and the financialisation debate. We find that overall domestic demand has been wage-led in the USA, UK and Germany. Total investment responds positively to higher wage shares, which is driven by residential investment. For corporate investment alone, we find a negative relation. Wealth effects are found to be positive and significant for consumption in the USA and UK, but weaker in France and Germany. Investment is negatively affected by private wealth in the USA and the UK, but positively in France and Germany.

Suggested Citation

  • Engelbert Stockhammer & Joel Rabinovich & Niall Reddy, 2018. "Distribution, wealth and demand regimes in historical perspective. USA, UK, France and Germany, 1855-2010," Working Papers PKWP1805, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    • Handle: RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp1805
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.postkeynesian.net/downloads/working-papers/PKWP1805_QBmpiEk.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2018
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert A. Blecker, 2016. "Wage-led versus profit-led demand regimes: the long and the short of it," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 4(4), pages 373-390, October.
    2. Fabian Lindner, 2013. "The Housing Wealth Effect on Consumption Reconsidered," IMK Working Paper 115-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    3. Mickaël Clevenot & Yann Guy & Jacques Mazier, 2010. "Investment and the rate of profit in a financial context: the French case," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(6), pages 693-714.
    4. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2017. "Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 213-263.
    5. Case Karl E. & Quigley John M. & Shiller Robert J., 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-34, May.
    6. Collins, William J. & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2001. "Capital-Goods Prices And Investment, 1870–1950," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 61(1), pages 59-94, March.
    7. Slacalek Jiri, 2009. "What Drives Personal Consumption? The Role of Housing and Financial Wealth," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-37, October.
    8. Robert Jump & Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, 2017. "Wage led aggregate demand in the United Kingdom," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 565-584, September.
    9. Ozgür Orhangazi, 2008. "Financialisation and capital accumulation in the non-financial corporate sector:," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(6), pages 863-886, November.
    10. Stefan Eger & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2007. "Wages and Aggregate Demand: An Empirical Investigation for France," Chapters, in: Eckhard Hein & Achim Truger (ed.), Money, Distribution and Economic Policy, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Ian Gazeley & Andrew Newell, 2015. "Urban working-class food consumption and nutrition in Britain in 1904," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 68(1), pages 101-122, February.
    12. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2017. "Wage-led versus profit-led demand: what have we learned? A Kaleckian–Minskyan view," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 25-42, January.
    13. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    14. Gennaro Zezza, 2009. "Fiscal policy and the economics of financial balances," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 6(2), pages 289-310.
    15. Özlem Onaran & Giorgos Galanis, 2014. "Income Distribution and Growth: A Global Model," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 46(10), pages 2489-2513, October.
    16. Engelbert Stockhammer & Rafael Wildauer, 2016. "Debt-driven growth? Wealth, distribution and demand in OECD countries," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 40(6), pages 1609-1634.
    17. Jackson, Gregory & Deeg, Richard, 2006. "How Many Varieties of Capitalism? Comparing the Comparative Institutional Analyses of Capitalist Diversity," MPIfG Discussion Paper 06/2, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    18. Cynamon Barry Z. & Fazzari Steven M., 2008. "Household Debt in the Consumer Age: Source of Growth--Risk of Collapse," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-32, October.
    19. Daniele Tori & Özlem Onaran, 2017. "The effects of financialisation and financial development on investment: evidence from firm-level data in Europe," Working Papers PKWP1705, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    20. Eckhard Hein, 2012. "Finance-dominated capitalism, re-distribution, household debt and financial fragility in a Kaleckian distribution and growth model," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 65(260), pages 11-51.
    21. David Kiefer & Codrina Rada, 2015. "Profit maximising goes global: the race to the bottom," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(5), pages 1333-1350.
    22. Bhaduri, Amit & Marglin, Stephen, 1990. "Unemployment and the Real Wage: The Economic Basis for Contesting Political Ideologies," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(4), pages 375-393, December.
    23. Ludwig Alexander & Sløk Torsten, 2004. "The Relationship between Stock Prices, House Prices and Consumption in OECD Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-28, March.
    24. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
    25. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2004. "Financialisation and the slowdown of accumulation," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(5), pages 719-741, September.
    26. Leila E Davis & Joao Paulo A de Souza & Gonzalo Hernandez, 2019. "An empirical analysis of Minsky regimes in the US economy," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 43(3), pages 541-583.
    27. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
    28. Engelbert Stockhammer & Eckhard Hein & Lucas Grafl, 2011. "Globalization and the effects of changes in functional income distribution on aggregate demand in Germany," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 1-23.
    29. Amitava Krishna Dutt, 2006. "Maturity, Stagnation And Consumer Debt: A Steindlian Approach," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 339-364, July.
    30. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 2010. "Cliometrics And Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory And Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 970-1042, December.
    31. Özlem Onaran & Engelbert Stockhammer & Lucas Grafl, 2011. "Financialisation, income distribution and aggregate demand in the USA," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(4), pages 637-661.
    32. Stockhammer, Engelbert & Onaran, Ozlem, 2004. "Accumulation, distribution and employment: a structural VAR approach to a Kaleckian macro model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 421-447, December.
    33. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    34. Yun K. Kim & Mark Setterfield & Yuan Mei, 2015. "Aggregate consumption and debt accumulation: an empirical examination of US household behaviour," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 39(1), pages 93-112.
    35. Engelbert Stockhammer & Özlem Onaran & Stefan Ederer, 2009. "Functional income distribution and aggregate demand in the Euro area," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(1), pages 139-159, January.
    36. Janine Aron & John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Keiko Murata & Anthony Murphy, 2012. "Credit, Housing Collateral, And Consumption: Evidence From Japan, The U.K., And The U.S," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 58(3), pages 397-423, September.
    37. Laura Carvalho & Armon Rezai, 2016. "Personal income inequality and aggregate demand," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(2), pages 491-505.
    38. Ludwig, Alexander & Sløk, Torsten, 2004. "The relationship between stock prices, house prices and consumption in OECD," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-12, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    39. Eckhard Hein & Achim Truger (ed.), 2007. "Money, Distribution And Economic Policy - Alternatives to Orthodox Macroeconomics," Conference proceedings of the Research Network Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Policies (FMM), IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute, number 9a-2007.
    40. Eckhard Hein & Lena Vogel, 2008. "Distribution and growth reconsidered: empirical results for six OECD countries," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(3), pages 479-511, May.
    41. Engelbert Stockhammer & Robert Stehrer, 2011. "Goodwin or Kalecki in Demand? Functional Income Distribution and Aggregate Demand in the Short Run," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 506-522, December.
    42. Daniele Tori & Özlem Onaran, 2018. "The effects of financialization on investment: evidence from firm-level data for the UK," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 42(5), pages 1393-1416.
    43. Steve Keen, 1995. "Finance and Economic Breakdown: Modeling Minsky’s “Financial Instability Hypothesis”," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 607-635, July.
    44. Nelson H. Barbosa‐Filho & Lance Taylor, 2006. "Distributive And Demand Cycles In The Us Economy—A Structuralist Goodwin Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 389-411, July.
    45. Jason Hecht, 2014. "Is net stock issuance relevant to capital formation? Comparing heterodox models of firm-level capital expenditures across the advanced and largest developing economies," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(5), pages 1171-1206.
    46. C. Naastepad & Servaas Storm, 2006. "OECD demand regimes (1960-2000)," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 211-246.
    47. Phillip W. Magness & Robert P. Murphy, 2015. "Challenging the Empirical Contribution of Thomas Piketty's Capital in the Twenty-First Century," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 30(Spring 20), pages 1-34.
    48. Soon Ryoo, 2013. "Bank profitability, leverage and financial instability: a Minsky–Harrod model," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(5), pages 1127-1160.
    49. Greasley, David & Madsen, Jakob B. & Oxley, Les, 2001. "Income Uncertainty and Consumer Spending during the Great Depression," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 225-251, April.
    50. Aldo Barba & Massimo Pivetti, 2009. "Rising household debt: Its causes and macroeconomic implications--a long-period analysis," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(1), pages 113-137, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Engelbert Stockhammer & Erik Bengtsson, 2020. "Financial effects in historic consumption and investment functions," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 304-326, May.
    2. Robert A Blecker & Michael Cauvel & Y K Kim, 2022. "Systems estimation of a structural model of distribution and demand in the US economy," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 46(2), pages 391-420.
    3. Eric Bengtsson & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2018. "Wages, income distribution and economic growth in Scandinavia," Working Papers PKWP1811, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    4. Barbieri Góes, Maria Cristina, 2019. "Personal income distribution and progressive taxation in a neo-Kaleckian model: Insights from the Italian case," IPE Working Papers 126/2019, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Engelbert Stockhammer & Joel Rabinovich & Niall Reddy, 2018. "Distribution, wealth and demand regimes in historical perspective," FMM Working Paper 14-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    2. Engelbert Stockhammer & Rafael Wildauer, 2016. "Debt-driven growth? Wealth, distribution and demand in OECD countries," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(6), pages 1609-1634.
    3. Eckhard Hein, 2017. "Post-Keynesian macroeconomics since the mid 1990s: main developments," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 14(2), pages 131-172, September.
    4. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2015. "Wage-led versus profit-led demand: What have we learned? A Kalecki-Minsky view," Working Papers PKWP1512, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    5. Cem Oyvat & Oğuz Öztunalı & Ceyhun Elgin, 2020. "Wage‐led versus profit‐led demand: A comprehensive empirical analysis," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 458-486, July.
    6. Robert A. Blecker, 2016. "Wage-led versus profit-led demand regimes: the long and the short of it," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 4(4), pages 373-390, October.
    7. Tristan Auvray & Cédric Durand & Joel Rabinovich & Cecilia Rikap, 2020. "Financialization's conservation and transformation: from Mark I to Mark II," CEPN Working Papers hal-03079425, HAL.
    8. Robert A Blecker & Michael Cauvel & Y K Kim, 2022. "Systems estimation of a structural model of distribution and demand in the US economy," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 46(2), pages 391-420.
    9. Hein, Eckhard, 2011. "Distribution, ‘Financialisation’ and the Financial and Economic Crisis – Implications for Post-crisis Economic Policies," MPRA Paper 31180, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Engelbert Stockhammer & Ozlem Onaran, 2013. "Wage-led growth: theory, evidence, policy," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 61-78, January.
    11. Hein, Eckhard, 2018. "Inequality and growth: Marxian and post-Keynesian/Kaleckian perspectives on distribution and growth regimes before and after the Great Recession," IPE Working Papers 96/2018, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    12. Oyvat, Cem & Öztunalı, Oğuz & Elgin, Ceyhun, 2018. "Wage-led vs. profit-led growth: a comprehensive empirical analysis," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 20951, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    13. Betül Mutlugün, 2022. "Endogenous income distribution and aggregate demand: Empirical evidence from heterogeneous panel structural vector autoregression," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 583-637, May.
    14. Jakob Kapeller & Bernhard Schütz, 2015. "Conspicuous Consumption, Inequality and Debt: The Nature of Consumption-driven Profit-led Regimes," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(1), pages 51-70, February.
    15. Cárdenas, Luis & Fernández, Rafael, 2020. "Revisiting francoist developmentalism: The influence of wages in the Spanish growth model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 260-268.
    16. Eckhard Hein, 2012. "The Macroeconomics of Finance-Dominated Capitalism – and its Crisis," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14931.
    17. Eckhard Hein & Nina Dodig, 2014. "Financialisation, distribution, growth and crises – long-run tendencies," Working papers wpaper23, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    18. Detzer, Daniel, 2019. "Financialization made in Germany: A review," IPE Working Papers 122/2019, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    19. Parui, Pintu, 2021. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Financialization and the Wage Gap between Blue and White Collar Workers," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 416-443.
    20. Hein, Eckhard, 2020. "Financialisation and stagnation: A macroeconomic regime perspective," IPE Working Papers 149/2020, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    historical macroeconomics; demand regimes; Bhaduri-Marglin model; wealth effects; financialisation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B50 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - General
    • E11 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Marxian; Sraffian; Kaleckian
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp1805. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jo Michell (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/pksggea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.