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The effects of income distribution and fiscal policy on aggregate demand, investment and the budget balance: the case of Europe1

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  • Thomas Obst
  • Özlem Onaran
  • Maria Nikolaidi

Abstract

This paper develops a multi-country post-Kaleckian model that incorporates the role of the government. One key novelty of the model is that it integrates cross-country effects of changes in both income distribution and fiscal policy. The model is used to estimate econometrically the effects of income distribution and fiscal policy on the components of aggregate demand and the budget balance in EU15 countries. The results show that a simultaneous increase in the wage share in all EU15 countries would increase demand and the primary budget balance in all countries. A simultaneous increase in government spending turns out to boost economic activity in all the EU15 countries, indicating the positive economic effects of expansionary fiscal policy. Moreover, a progressive tax policy that would be implemented simultaneously at the EU level would lead to an increase in output in all countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Obst & Özlem Onaran & Maria Nikolaidi, 2020. "The effects of income distribution and fiscal policy on aggregate demand, investment and the budget balance: the case of Europe1," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 44(6), pages 1221-1243.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:cambje:v:44:y:2020:i:6:p:1221-1243.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cje/bez045
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Woodgate, Ryan, 2021. "Profit-led in effect or in mere appearance? Estimating the Irish demand regime given the influence of multinational enterprises," IPE Working Papers 154/2021, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    2. Hiroshi Nishi & Kazuhiro Okuma, 2023. "Fiscal policy and social infrastructure provision under alternative growth and distribution regimes," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 259-286, September.
    3. Gouzoulis, Giorgos & Iliopoulos, Panagiotis & Galanis, Giorgos, 2022. "EU-induced Financialisation and Its Impact on the Greek Wage Share, 1999-2021," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1209, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    4. Hiroshi Nishi & Kazuhiro Okuma, 2023. "Social common capital accumulation and fiscal sustainability in a wage-led growth economy," Working Papers PKWP2305, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    5. Hur, Joonyoung, 2021. "Labor income share and economic fluctuations: A sign-restricted VAR approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    6. Hein, Eckhard & Prante, Franz & Bramucci, Alessandro, 2022. "Financialisation and the potentials for a progressive equality-, sustainability- and domestic demand-led regime: A post-Keynesian simulation approach," IPE Working Papers 192/2022, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    7. Engelbert Stockhammer & Karsten Kohler, 2023. "Learning from distant cousins? Post-Keynesian Economics, Comparative Political Economy, and the Growth Models approach," Chapters, in: Thomas Palley & Esteban Pérez Caldentey & Matías Vernengo (ed.), Varieties of Capitalism, chapter 3, pages 56-75, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Ryan Woodgate, 2022. "Profit-led in effect or in appearance alone? Estimating the Irish demand regime given the influence of multinational enterprises," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 319-350, July.
    9. Eckhard Hein & Franz Prante & Alessandro Bramucci, 2023. "Demand and growth regimes in finance-dominated capitalism and a progressive equality-, sustainability- and domestic demand-led alternative: A post-Keynesian simulation approach," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 76(305), pages 181-202.

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