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Evaluation of the land carrying capacity of major grain-producing areas and the identification of risk factors

Author

Listed:
  • Kun Cheng

    (Northeast Agricultural University)

  • Qiang Fu

    (Northeast Agricultural University
    Collaborative Innovation Centre of Promote Grain Production in Heilongjiang Province
    Key Laboratory of Water-saving Agriculture of Regular Institutions of Higher Education in Heilongjiang Province)

  • Song Cui

    (Northeast Agricultural University)

  • Tian-xiao Li

    (Northeast Agricultural University)

  • Wei Pei

    (Northeast Agricultural University)

  • Dong Liu

    (Northeast Agricultural University)

  • Jun Meng

    (Northeast Agricultural University)

Abstract

Analyzing the risk factors in the land carrying capacity system of major grain-producing areas is crucial for the optimization of land management by decision makers. For that purpose, the major grain-producing areas (Heilongjiang Province) in China are used as an example, with 17 indicators, such as resource, social, economic, coordinated development of an ecological subsystem, selection of the coordination degree of water and soil, effective irrigation rate, grain yield and environmental protection investment rate. This paper establishes an evaluation index system for the land carrying capacity. In addition, on the basis of the values of each index, the initial values were obtained via multiple interval stochastic weight assignments; the evaluation criteria and the land carrying capacity level were determined using a cloud model, and the major risk factors were determined using the degree of risk for each index. The results indicated that the evaluation criteria for the land carrying capacity can be categorized within level I [0.02, 0.24], level II [0.24, 0.40], level III [0.40, 0.55], level IV [0.55, 0.70] and level V [0.70, 0.91]. The land carrying capacity exhibited a continuous rise at each observation station during representative years. The industrial structure and regional development directly affected the land carrying capacity. Therefore, the evaluation results were concluded to be reliable. The risk factors for the land carrying capacity system were different at different periods of time; they included the effective irrigation rate and net income per capita between 2001 and 2008 and transportation land use, solid waste and fertilizer consumption between 2009 and 2013. In addition, between 2001 and 2013, the risk source for the land carrying capacity system transitioned from economic and social subsystems to ecological and social subsystems. The research results provide a decision-making reference for the development, improvement and management of land resources in the study area.

Suggested Citation

  • Kun Cheng & Qiang Fu & Song Cui & Tian-xiao Li & Wei Pei & Dong Liu & Jun Meng, 2017. "Evaluation of the land carrying capacity of major grain-producing areas and the identification of risk factors," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(1), pages 263-280, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:86:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-016-2686-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2686-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jia Gao & Rongrong Zhao & Yuxin Zhan, 2022. "Land Comprehensive Carrying Capacity of Major Grain-Producing Areas in Northeast China: Spatial–Temporal Evolution, Obstacle Factors and Regulatory Policies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-14, September.
    2. Hefeng Wang & Yuan Cao & Xiaohu Wu & Ao Zhao & Yi Xie, 2022. "Estimation and Potential Analysis of Land Population Carrying Capacity in Shanghai Metropolis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(14), pages 1-20, July.
    3. Yu Liu & Fangchen Shi & Hongman He & Liyin Shen & Wenzhu Luo & Lingyun Sun, 2021. "Study on the Matching Degree between Land Resources Carrying Capacity and Industrial Development in Main Cities of Xinjiang, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-17, September.
    4. Guangming Cui & Xuliang Zhang & Zhaohui Zhang & Yinghui Cao & Xiujun Liu, 2019. "Comprehensive Land Carrying Capacities of the Cities in the Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone and their Spatio-Temporal Variations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-12, January.
    5. Jia Gao & Rongrong Zhao & Ge Song & Yuxin Zhan & Yaohui Zhu, 2022. "Spatial–Temporal Evolution Patterns and Regulatory Strategies for Land Resource Carrying Capacity of China’s Major Grain-Producing Areas," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-17, November.
    6. Bing Jiang & Wenjie Tang & Meijia Li & Guangchao Yang & Xiaoshang Deng & Lihang Cui, 2023. "Assessing Land Resource Carrying Capacity in China’s Main Grain-Producing Areas: Spatial–Temporal Evolution, Coupling Coordination, and Obstacle Factors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-26, December.

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