IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v115y2023i3d10.1007_s11069-022-05648-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Wintertime cold and warm spells in the eastern part of the Baltic Sea region

Author

Listed:
  • Indrė Gečaitė

    (Vilnius University)

  • Egidijus Rimkus

    (Vilnius University)

Abstract

One of the most important uncertainties in a changing climate conditions are changes in climate extremes. While precipitation extremes are particularly important at low latitudes, thermal extremes are of major interest at mid-latitudes. This study analyses the cold (CS) and warm (WS) spells winter climatology in the eastern part of the Baltic Sea region from 1951 till 2020. Data from the E-OBS database were used in the research. A CS/WS in this study is an event when extreme low/high (below 10th/above 90th percentile) air temperature persists for at least 5 days. The period 1971–2000 was used as the climate norm. The results show that both absolute winter air temperature minimum and maximum increased over the investigation period. The absolute maximum of winter air temperature strongly increased after 1988, when a statistically significant regime shift was determined. The results show that the number of WSs has increased and changes are statistically significant in most cases. Meanwhile, the recurrence and duration of CSs have changed insignificantly, although the number of years with more than one CSs is decreasing. The total number of CS/WS cases per season slightly increased. Total number of WSs days increased a lot at the last decade of the investigation period, while the number of CSs days changed insignificantly in recent several decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Indrė Gečaitė & Egidijus Rimkus, 2023. "Wintertime cold and warm spells in the eastern part of the Baltic Sea region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(3), pages 2435-2456, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:115:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05648-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05648-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-022-05648-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-022-05648-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David E. H. J. Gernaat & Harmen Sytze Boer & Vassilis Daioglou & Seleshi G. Yalew & Christoph Müller & Detlef P. Vuuren, 2021. "Climate change impacts on renewable energy supply," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(2), pages 119-125, February.
    2. Judah Cohen & Karl Pfeiffer & Jennifer A. Francis, 2018. "Warm Arctic episodes linked with increased frequency of extreme winter weather in the United States," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Thomas Thaler & Patrick A. Witte & Thomas Hartmann & Stan C. M. Geertman, 2021. "Smart Urban Governance for Climate Change Adaptation," Urban Planning, Cogitatio Press, vol. 6(3), pages 223-226.
    4. S. Outten & I. Esau, 2012. "A link between Arctic sea ice and recent cooling trends over Eurasia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 1069-1075, February.
    5. Yi Xi & Shushi Peng & Philippe Ciais & Youhua Chen, 2021. "Future impacts of climate change on inland Ramsar wetlands," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 45-51, January.
    6. Arkadiusz M. Tomczyk & Agnieszka Sulikowska & Ewa Bednorz & Marek Półrolniczak, 2019. "Atmospheric circulation conditions during winter warm spells in Central Europe," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 96(3), pages 1413-1428, April.
    7. Nathaniel C. Johnson & Shang-Ping Xie & Yu Kosaka & Xichen Li, 2018. "Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, December.
    8. Guoyu Ren & Johnny C. L. Chan & Hisayuki Kubota & Zhongshi Zhang & Jinbao Li & Yongxiang Zhang & Yingxian Zhang & Yuda Yang & Yuyu Ren & Xiubao Sun & Yun Su & Yuhui Liu & Zhixin Hao & Xiaoying Xue & Y, 2021. "Historical and recent change in extreme climate over East Asia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 1-19, October.
    9. Erdman, Chandra & Emerson, John W., 2007. "bcp: An R Package for Performing a Bayesian Analysis of Change Point Problems," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 23(i03).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tafone, Alessio & Raj Thangavelu, Sundar & Morita, Shigenori & Romagnoli, Alessandro, 2023. "Design optimization of a novel cryo-polygeneration demonstrator developed in Singapore – Techno-economic feasibility study for a cooling dominated tropical climate," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 330(PB).
    2. Yu Yueyue & Yang Wenwen & Zhang Lingli & Guan Zhaoyong & Yang Qinlan & Hu Muxin & Qiu Wentian & Wang Jingyi, 2023. "Region-dependent meteorological conditions for the winter cold hazards with and without precipitation in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(3), pages 2673-2698, February.
    3. Mahsa Dehghan Manshadi & Milad Mousavi & M. Soltani & Amir Mosavi & Levente Kovacs, 2022. "Deep Learning for Modeling an Offshore Hybrid Wind–Wave Energy System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-16, December.
    4. Waffenschmidt, Brigitte, 2021. "Nachhaltigkeit: Modewort oder Erwartung der Generation Y an ihre Arbeitgeber," EconStor Research Reports 246810, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    5. Lisa Reyes Mason & Bonita B. Sharma & Jayme E. Walters & Christine C. Ekenga, 2020. "Mental Health and Weather Extremes in a Southeastern U.S. City: Exploring Group Differences by Race," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-18, May.
    6. Cheng, Qian & Liu, Pan & Xia, Qian & Cheng, Lei & Ming, Bo & Zhang, Wei & Xu, Weifeng & Zheng, Yalian & Han, Dongyang & Xia, Jun, 2023. "An analytical method to evaluate curtailment of hydro–photovoltaic hybrid energy systems and its implication under climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    7. Hailemariam, Abebe & Ivanovski, Kris & Dzhumashev, Ratbek, 2022. "Does R&D investment in renewable energy technologies reduce greenhouse gas emissions?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 327(C).
    8. Addona Vittorio & Yates Philip A, 2010. "A Closer Look at the Relative Age Effect in the National Hockey League," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 6(4), pages 1-19, October.
    9. Yuqing Zhang & Changchun Chen & Yun Niu & Liucheng Shen & Wenyuan Wang, 2023. "The severity of heat and cold waves amplified by high relative humidity in humid subtropical basins: a case study in the Gan River Basin, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(1), pages 865-898, January.
    10. Daniel Mantilla-García & Vijay Vaidyanathan, 2017. "Predicting stock returns in the presence of uncertain structural changes and sample noise," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 31(3), pages 357-391, August.
    11. H. Pallubinsky & R. P. Kramer & W. D. Marken Lichtenbelt, 2023. "Establishing resilience in times of climate change—a perspective on humans and buildings," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(10), pages 1-19, October.
    12. Donghui Xu & Gautam Bisht & Zeli Tan & Eva Sinha & Alan V. Vittorio & Tian Zhou & Valeriy Y. Ivanov & L. Ruby Leung, 2024. "Climate change will reduce North American inland wetland areas and disrupt their seasonal regimes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    13. Jill F. Lundell & Brennan Bean & Jürgen Symanzik, 2023. "Let’s talk about the weather: a cluster-based approach to weather forecast accuracy," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 1135-1155, September.
    14. Martin T. Dokulil & Elvira Eyto & Stephen C. Maberly & Linda May & Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer & R. Iestyn Woolway, 2021. "Increasing maximum lake surface temperature under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 1-17, April.
    15. Xiaofei Yang & Haopeng Yu & Susan Duncan & Yueying Zhang & Jitender Cheema & Haifeng Liu & J. Benjamin Miller & Jie Zhang & Chun Kit Kwok & Huakun Zhang & Yiliang Ding, 2022. "RNA G-quadruplex structure contributes to cold adaptation in plants," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    16. Zhang, Li & Wang, Lu & Peng, Lijuan & Luo, Keyu, 2023. "Measuring the response of clean energy stock price volatility to extreme shocks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 1289-1300.
    17. Zhang, Yi & Cheng, Chuntian & Yang, Tiantian & Jin, Xiaoyu & Jia, Zebin & Shen, Jianjian & Wu, Xinyu, 2022. "Assessment of climate change impacts on the hydro-wind-solar energy supply system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    18. Lauren Dundes & Madeline Streiff & Zachary Streiff, 2018. "Storm Power, an Icy Tower and Elsa’s Bower: The Winds of Change in Disney’s Frozen," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 7(6), pages 1-29, May.
    19. Biswas, Neeraj Kumar & Srivastav, Anupam & Saxena, Sakshi & Verma, Anuradha & Dutta, Runjhun & Srivastava, Manju & Upadhyay, Sumant & Satsangi, Vibha Rani & Shrivastav, Rohit & Dass, Sahab, 2023. "Temperature of photoanode for photoelectrochemical water oxidation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 504-511.
    20. Liang, Chao & Umar, Muhammad & Ma, Feng & Huynh, Toan L.D., 2022. "Climate policy uncertainty and world renewable energy index volatility forecasting," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:115:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05648-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.