IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/minecn/v33y2020i1d10.1007_s13563-020-00227-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Potential copper production through 2035 in Chile

Author

Listed:
  • Gustavo Lagos

    (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile)

  • David Peters

    (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile)

  • Marcos Lima

    (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile)

  • José Joaquín Jara

    (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile)

Abstract

In the long term, primary and secondary supply of refined copper satisfies demand. Numerous models exist to explain and predict demand and secondary supply; however, the projection of primary supply relies mostly on detailed knowledge of potential mining projects and on existing ore reserves and resources. Much discussion has occurred historically regarding the availability of resources and reserves for the future. Chile, being the largest copper producer, also has the largest reserves in the world; therefore, it retains its potential to be a key player in future supply. This article explores some of the most relevant resource and technological challenges that may emerge with an accelerated development of brownfield and greenfield copper mining projects in Chile through 2035, without considering economic, regulatory, and environmental constraints. A “Full Scenario” was created to accommodate these conditions and restrictions. It includes estimates of future ore reserves, copper production, plant capacity, ore grades, energy and water consumption, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and generation of tailings. Maximum production would exceed 10 million tons of contained copper from 2027 to 2030, with a resulting decrease of ore grades and the growth of energy and water consumption. The growth of indirect GHG emissions through 2035 is estimated at 18.4% less than copper production growth, because all new electric energy for this scenario would be based on renewable energy. Also, all new water used by 38 out of the 42 mining projects considered would be seawater, and some of the continental water used in 2019 would cease to be used in mining.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustavo Lagos & David Peters & Marcos Lima & José Joaquín Jara, 2020. "Potential copper production through 2035 in Chile," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 33(1), pages 43-56, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:minecn:v:33:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s13563-020-00227-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s13563-020-00227-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13563-020-00227-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13563-020-00227-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James West, 2011. "Decreasing Metal Ore Grades," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 15(2), pages 165-168, April.
    2. Harmsen, J.H.M. & Roes, A.L. & Patel, M.K., 2013. "The impact of copper scarcity on the efficiency of 2050 global renewable energy scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 62-73.
    3. Hondo, Hiroki, 2005. "Life cycle GHG emission analysis of power generation systems: Japanese case," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 2042-2056.
    4. Tilton, John E. & Crowson, Phillip C.F. & DeYoung, John H. & Eggert, Roderick G. & Ericsson, Magnus & Guzmán, Juan Ignacio & Humphreys, David & Lagos, Gustavo & Maxwell, Philip & Radetzki, Marian & Si, 2018. "Public policy and future mineral supplies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 55-60.
    5. Schoenberger, Erica, 2016. "Environmentally sustainable mining: The case of tailings storage facilities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 119-128.
    6. Franklin M. Fisher & Paul H. Cootner & Martin N. Baily, 1972. "An Econometric Model of the World Copper Industry," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 3(2), pages 568-609, Autumn.
    7. Saleem H. Ali & Damien Giurco & Nicholas Arndt & Edmund Nickless & Graham Brown & Alecos Demetriades & Ray Durrheim & Maria Amélia Enriquez & Judith Kinnaird & Anna Littleboy & Lawrence D. Meinert & R, 2017. "Mineral supply for sustainable development requires resource governance," Nature, Nature, vol. 543(7645), pages 367-372, March.
    8. Gomez, Fernando & Guzman, Juan Ignacio & Tilton, John E., 2007. "Copper recycling and scrap availability," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 183-190, December.
    9. Slade, Margaret E., 1980. "An econometric model of the U.S. secondary copper industry: Recycling versus disposal," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 123-141, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rivera, Nilza & Guzmán, Juan Ignacio & Jara, José Joaquín & Lagos, Gustavo, 2021. "Evaluation of econometric models of secondary refined copper supply," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    2. Florian Fizaine, 2019. "The Economics of Recycling Rate: new insights from a Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment," Policy Papers 2019.01, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    3. Fizaine, Florian, 2020. "The economics of recycling rate: New insights from waste electrical and electronic equipment," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    4. Blomberg, Jerry & Söderholm, Patrik, 2009. "The economics of secondary aluminium supply: An econometric analysis based on European data," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 455-463.
    5. Hunt, C. & Romero, J. & Jara, J. & Lagos, G., 2021. "Copper demand forecasts and predictions of future scarcity," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    6. Nadine Rötzer & Mario Schmidt, 2020. "Historical, Current, and Future Energy Demand from Global Copper Production and Its Impact on Climate Change," Resources, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-31, April.
    7. Nilza Rivera & Juan Ignacio Guzmán & Gustavo Lagos, 2023. "A method to estimate the robustness of the secondary refined copper supply function," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 36(2), pages 255-277, June.
    8. Emilio Castillo & Roderick Eggert, 2019. "Reconciling Diverging Views on Mineral Depletion: A Modified Cumulative Availability Curve Applied to Copper Resources," Working Papers 2019-02, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    9. Patrik Söderholm & Tomas Ekvall, 2020. "Metal markets and recycling policies: impacts and challenges," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 33(1), pages 257-272, July.
    10. Francesco Nicolli & Nick Johnstone & Patrik Söderholm, 2012. "Resolving failures in recycling markets: the role of technological innovation," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 14(3), pages 261-288, July.
    11. Endl, Andreas & Tost, Michael & Hitch, Michael & Moser, Peter & Feiel, Susanne, 2021. "Europe's mining innovation trends and their contribution to the sustainable development goals: Blind spots and strong points," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    12. Fu, Xinkai & Ueland, Stian M. & Olivetti, Elsa, 2017. "Econometric modeling of recycled copper supply," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 219-226.
    13. Haas, Jannik & Moreno-Leiva, Simón & Junne, Tobias & Chen, Po-Jung & Pamparana, Giovanni & Nowak, Wolfgang & Kracht, Willy & Ortiz, Julián M., 2020. "Copper mining: 100% solar electricity by 2030?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    14. Castillo, Emilio, 2021. "The impacts of profit-based royalties on early-stage mineral exploration," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    15. Yakovleva, Natalia & Chiwona, Annock G. & Manning, David A.C. & Heidrich, Oliver, 2021. "Circular economy and six approaches to improve potassium life cycle for global crop production," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    16. Juliana Segura-Salazar & Luís Marcelo Tavares, 2018. "Sustainability in the Minerals Industry: Seeking a Consensus on Its Meaning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-38, May.
    17. West, James, 2020. "Extractable global resources and the future availability of metal stocks: “Known Unknowns” for the foreseeable future," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    18. António Mateus & Luís Martins, 2021. "Building a mineral-based value chain in Europe: the balance between social acceptance and secure supply," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 34(2), pages 239-261, July.
    19. Asunción Arner Güerre & Ramón Barberán Ortí & Jesús Mur Lacambra, 2003. "Las políticas públicas de fomento del reciclaje: La regeneración de aceites usados," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 167(4), pages 33-55, December.
    20. Elisabeth Christen & Klaus S. Friesenbichler & Alexander Hudetz & Claudia Kettner-Marx & Ina Meyer & Franz Sinabell, 2021. "Außenhandel und nachhaltige Entwicklung in Österreich. Befunde auf der Grundlage von vorliegenden Quellen," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 69290, Juni.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:minecn:v:33:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s13563-020-00227-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.