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Envisaging long-term urban dynamics: a spatially explicit analysis of local-scale population growth and natural balance

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  • Luca Salvati

    (University of Macerata)

Abstract

Metropolitan growth in advanced countries is the result of inherent transformations in morphology and functions, with emergence and consolidation of demographic processes widening the divide between urban and rural areas. The present study proposes an original analysis of urban expansion quantifying the contribution of natural and migration balance in total population growth rate under different transitional stages of a city life cycle (‘urbanization’, ‘suburbanization’, ‘counter-urbanization’, and ‘re-urbanization’). A spatially explicit approach based on Moran’s autocorrelation indexes and a Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) supplemented a more traditional analysis of municipal-level census data and vital statistics assessing long-term population dynamics over a complete urban cycle in the Athens’ metropolitan region (Greece). Our work demonstrates that natural balance contributed significantly to population growth during ‘urbanization’ and ‘re-urbanization’ stages. Conversely, migration balance contributed more significantly to population growth during ‘suburbanization’ and ‘counter-urbanization’ stages. Results of this study re-contextualize metropolitan cycles within a more general debate on demographic transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Salvati, 2020. "Envisaging long-term urban dynamics: a spatially explicit analysis of local-scale population growth and natural balance," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 165-186, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:lsprsc:v:13:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s12076-020-00251-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s12076-020-00251-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Luca Salvati & Margherita Carlucci, 2015. "Land-use structure, urban growth, and periurban landscape: a multivariate classification of the European cities," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 42(5), pages 801-829, September.
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    9. Massimo Livi-Bacci, 2015. "What we can and cannot learn from the history of world population," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 69(sup1), pages 21-28, April.
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    11. Christopher Henrie & David Plane, 2008. "Exodus from the California Core: Using Demographic Effectiveness and Migration Impact Measures to Examine Population Redistribution Within the Western United States," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 27(1), pages 43-64, February.
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    13. Cesare Feliciantonio & Luca Salvati & Efthymia Sarantakou & Kostas Rontos, 2018. "Class diversification, economic growth and urban sprawl: evidences from a pre-crisis European city," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1501-1522, July.
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    16. Vittorio Gargiulo Morelli & Kostas Rontos & Luca Salvati, 2014. "Between suburbanisation and re-urbanisation: revisiting the urban life cycle in a Mediterranean compact city," Urban Research & Practice, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 74-88, January.
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    21. Byron Kotzamanis & Anastasia Kostaki, 2015. "The Implications of the Recent Economic Crisis on Fertility in Greece," European Journal of Economics and Business Studies Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 1, September.
    22. Luca Salvati & Adele Sateriano & Eftathios Grigoriadis, 2016. "Crisis and the city: profiling urban growth under economic expansion and stagnation," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 329-342, October.
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