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Toward a New Cycle: Short-Term Population Dynamics, Gentrification, and Re-Urbanization of Milan (Italy)

Author

Listed:
  • Margherita Carlucci

    (Department of Social and Economic Sciences, Sapienza University of Rome, Building CU002, Piazzale Aldo Moro 5, I-00185 Rome, Italy)

  • Francesco Maria Chelli

    (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Polytechnic University of Marche, Piazzale Martelli 8, I-60121 Ancona, Italy)

  • Luca Salvati

    (Council for Agricultural Research and Economics (CREA), Viale S. Margherita 80, I-52100 Arezzo, Italy)

Abstract

After sequential cycles of urbanization and suburbanization, European cities underwent a (more or less intense) re-urbanization wave. The present study analyzes short-term population dynamics in the core of a large metropolitan region (Milan, northern Italy), providing evidence of spatially-heterogeneous re-urbanization characterized by spatially-complex population growth (or shrinkage) at a local scale. Population dynamics over 1999–2017 were assessed in 88 urban districts partitioning Milan′s municipal area and projected up to 2036 for the same spatial units. Empirical results identify spatially-complex and temporally non-linear dynamics with expanding or declining districts distributed heterogeneously across the study area. Multivariate analysis outlines a generalized population decline during 1999–2008 and an opposite pattern afterward (2008–2017), with spatially-homogeneous population expansion expected in the near future. Spatial analysis finally highlights that local-scale population growth rates were more clustered in 2008–2017 than in 1999–2008. While the population decreased continuously in the inner districts (<1 km from the city centre), sub-central districts (1–5 km far from the city centre) experienced mixed patterns of population growth and stability. These results confirm the relevance of local-scale policies managing urban renewal and rehabilitation and promoting metropolitan expansion in a spatially-coordinated manner.

Suggested Citation

  • Margherita Carlucci & Francesco Maria Chelli & Luca Salvati, 2018. "Toward a New Cycle: Short-Term Population Dynamics, Gentrification, and Re-Urbanization of Milan (Italy)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-12, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:9:p:3014-:d:165622
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    3. Vinci, Sabato & Bartolacci, Francesca & Salvia, Rosanna & Salvati, Luca, 2022. "Housing markets, the great crisis, and metropolitan gradients: Insights from Greece, 2000–2014," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Yang, Ziqi & Li, Xinghua & Guo, Yuntao & Qian, Xinwu, 2023. "Understanding active transportation accessibility's impacts on polycentric and monocentric cities' housing price," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    5. Cattivelli, Valentina, 2021. "Planning peri-urban areas at regional level: The experience of Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna (Italy)," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    6. Rosanna Salvia & Andrea Colantoni & Leonardo Bianchini & Gianluca Egidi & Gloria Polinesi & Luca Salvati & Giovanni Quaranta, 2022. "‘Old’ Territorial Disparities and ‘New’ Spatial Patterns: Unraveling the Latent Nexus between Sustainable Development and Desertification Risk in Italy," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-14, February.
    7. Verstegen, Judith A. & Goch, Katarzyna, 2022. "Pattern-oriented calibration and validation of urban growth models: Case studies of Dublin, Milan and Warsaw," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).

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