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Modeling traveler recovery time following man-made incidents: the case of the Athens metro

Author

Listed:
  • Christina Milioti

    (National Technical University of Athens)

  • Konstantinos Kepaptsoglou

    (National Technical University of Athens)

  • Alexandros Deloukas

    (Atttiko Metro S.A)

  • Gerasimos Prodromitis

    (Panteion University)

  • Christina Iliopoulou

    (National Technical University of Athens)

Abstract

Man-man, life-threating incidents such as terrorist attacks, can have a significant impact in travel behavior and public transport ridership. Based on data collected from an extensive personal interview survey undertaken in Athens (Greece), factors affecting post-incident recovery time of metro users (i.e. the time till travelers will start re-using the metro system) are investigated and modeled. A preliminary statistical analysis reveals that most survey participants would return in the metro system within a week, while almost 16% of them exhibits a persistent change in traveler behavior as they would avoid using the metro system for more than 6 months. A clustering methodology and a discrete duration model are applied to further analyze and model metro user recovery time. Results show that women, less educated travelers, non-frequent users and travelers with higher risk perception, are less likely to use the metro system after a man-made incident.

Suggested Citation

  • Christina Milioti & Konstantinos Kepaptsoglou & Alexandros Deloukas & Gerasimos Prodromitis & Christina Iliopoulou, 2019. "Modeling traveler recovery time following man-made incidents: the case of the Athens metro," Journal of Transportation Security, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 103-117, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jtrsec:v:12:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s12198-019-00205-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s12198-019-00205-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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