The importance of being mature: the effect of demographic maturation on global per capita GDP
AbstractGiven that savings behaviour and worker productivity have strong life-cycle components and given that demographic profiles vary across countries, population age structure should be linked to differences in levels of economic development. In this paper we measure the economic importance of age structure variation for the global economy. We find that even after adjusting for country-specific effects, demographic maturation has been associated with nearly half of the evolution of global per-capita GDP since 1960. We also find that age structure differences can account for just over half of the variation in worldwide per capita GDP (i.e. the lack of sigma convergence) observed since 1960. Taken as a whole, these results complement recent theoretical and empirical work on the importance of population size and economic development and reinforce empirical work linking mature demographic age structures with faster cross-country economic growth rates. JEL Classification: J13, J22, J24, O11, O40
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Population Economics.
Volume (Year): 21 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://link.springer.de/link/service/journals/00148/index.htm
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Gómez, Rafael & Hernández de Cos, Pablo, 2006. "The importance of being mature: the effect of demographic maturation on global per-capita GDP," Working Paper Series 0670, European Central Bank.
- J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
- J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
- J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
- O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sala-i-martin, X., 1995.
"The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis,"
734, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1995. "The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1254, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1995. "The classical approach to convergence analysis," Economics Working Papers 117, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992.
"A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
- Barro, R.J., 1989.
"Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries,"
RCER Working Papers
201, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Richard B. Freeman, 1980.
"Unionism and the Dispersion of Wages,"
NBER Working Papers
0248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Weil, David N, 1994. "The Saving of the Elderly in Micro and Macro Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 55-81, February.
- Charles I. Jones, .
"On the Evolution of the World Income Distribution,"
97009, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
- Schultz, T.P., 1998.
"Inequality in the Distribution of Personal Income in the World: How It Is Changing and Why,"
784, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- T. Paul Schultz, 1998. "Inequality in the distribution of personal income in the world: How it is changing and why," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 307-344.
- David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2008.
"Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia,"
PGDA Working Papers
4108, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
- Alesina, Alberto & Spolaore, Enrico & Wacziarg, Romain, 2005.
"Trade, Growth and the Size of Countries,"
Handbook of Economic Growth,
in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1499-1542
- Alberto Alesina & Enrico Spolaore & Romain Wacziarg, 2003. "Trade, Growth, and the Size of Countries," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1995, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999.
"The new empirics of economic growth,"
Handbook of Macroeconomics,
in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308
- S Durlauf & Danny Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," CEP Discussion Papers dp0384, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Steven N. Durlauf & Danny T. Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," Working Papers 98-01-012, Santa Fe Institute.
- Durlauf,S.N. & Quah,D.T., 1998. "The new empirics of economic growth," Working papers 3, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Steven N. Durlauf & Danny T. Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 6422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, .
"Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth,"
University of Chicago - Population Research Center
90-5a, Chicago - Population Research Center.
- Becker, Gary S & Murphy, Kevin M & Tamura, Robert, 1990. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S12-37, October.
- Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, 1994. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education (3rd Edition), pages 323-350 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Oded Galor & David N. Weil, 1993.
"The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
4550, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David E. Bloom & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 1997.
"Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia,"
NBER Working Papers
6268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 419-55, September.
- Deininger, Klaus & Squire, Lyn, 1998. "New ways of looking at old issues: inequality and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 259-287.
- Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2002.
"The world distribution of income (estimated from individual country distributions),"
0102-58, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
- Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2002. "The World Distribution of Income (estimated from Individual Country Distributions)," NBER Working Papers 8933, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2002. "The world distribution of income (estimated from individual country distributions)," Economics Working Papers 615, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 2002.
- David Card & Thomas Lemieux & W. Craig Riddell, 2004. "Unions and Wage Inequality," Journal of Labor Research, Transaction Publishers, vol. 25(4), pages 519-562, October.
- Michael Sarel, 1995. "Demographic Dynamics and the Empirics of Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 398-410, June.
- Rafael Gómez & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2003. "Demographic Maturity and Economic Performance: The Effect of Demographic Transitions on Per Capita GDP Growth," Banco de Espaï¿½a Working Papers 0318, Banco de Espa�a.
- Modigliani, Franco, 1985.
"Life Cycle, Individual Thrift and the Wealth of Nations,"
Nobel Prize in Economics documents
1985-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
- Modigliani, Franco, 1986. "Life Cycle, Individual Thrift, and the Wealth of Nations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 297-313, June.
- James Feyrer, 2007. "Demographics and Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 100-109, February.
- Liviano Solís, Daniel & Arauzo Carod, Josep Maria, 2013.
"Spatial Exploration of Age Distribution in Catalan Municipalities,"
2072/220222, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
- Daniel Liviano & Josep-Maria Arauzo-Carod, 2012. "Spatial Exploration of Age Distribution in Catalan Municipalities," ERSA conference papers ersa12p81, European Regional Science Association.
- Erik Lueth, 2008. "Capital Flows and Demographics--An Asian Perspective," IMF Working Papers 08/8, International Monetary Fund.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn) or (Christopher F Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.