Food security in China at 2050: a global CGE exercise

Since 2010, China has changed its position in the world grain market from a net exporter to a net importer. The total grain trade deficit was $420 million in 2010. However, the increasing grain import contradicts its food security policy of achieving a 95% grain self-sufficiency rate. Additionally, Chinese agricultural productivity is lower than the world average, and much lower than high-income countries, which puts grave pressure on the country’s food security target. Toward this end, the study investigates China’s food security status in 2030 and the impact of alternative policies on food security. A global CGE framework (GTAP) has been used to estimate the impact of agriculture and trade policy interventions on food security in China. A recursive process is used to project the model to 2050 under business as usual. The study has attempted various scenarios to study the impact of food security in China. The results from this study suggest that China is expected to achieve a grain self-sufficiency level of a little above 90% by the year 2030. The meat tariff reduction has a greater positive impact on China’s food security than the other scenarios. In addition, most of the policies are beneficial for national welfare. The total value of agricultural imports and exports are expected to increase substantially. In addition, the current Red Line arable land protection policy (1800 million mu) is determined to be insufficient to allow for the production of enough grain by 2030 to meet the desired 95% self-sufficiency rate. Study results indicate that arable land should be strictly protected for food production against pressure from industrialization and urbanization. However, it is only part of the food security solution and, policy interventions are required to ensure that China’s food security targets are met.