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Robust optimization evaluation of reliance on locally produced foods

Author

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  • Bayram Dundar

    (University of Missouri)

  • Christine Costello

    (University of Missouri)

  • Ronald G. McGarvey

    (University of Missouri)

Abstract

While local food production may be beneficial in terms of developing the local economy and reducing greenhouse gases from transportation, sustainability strategies focused on local food production may generate their own risks due to yield variability. We have developed a robust optimization (RO) model to determine the minimum amount of land (cropland and pasture) required to grow food items that would satisfy a local population’s (accounting for gender and age) calorie and nutrient needs. This model has been applied to Boone County, Missouri, which has a population of approximately 170,000. Boone County is 1790 km2, with 16% of the land defined as cropland and 30% defined as pasture. The model includes 27 nutrients from 17 potential foods that could be produced: six fruits and vegetables, five grains and six animal-sourced foods. Yield estimates are based on the predominate methods of agriculture in the USA. We first run our model assuming no variability, using the midpoint yield estimates. Then, to quantify uncertainty in yield for different food types, we use historical yield data over 10 years to estimate this variability and run our RO model under these variability estimates. We compare the two model results to illustrate the impact of data uncertainty on meeting sustainable local food for communities. Solutions suggest that nutrition needs can be met for the Boone County population within the land area defined.

Suggested Citation

  • Bayram Dundar & Christine Costello & Ronald G. McGarvey, 2017. "Robust optimization evaluation of reliance on locally produced foods," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 34-41, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:envsyd:v:37:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10669-016-9617-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10669-016-9617-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martinez, Stephen W. & Hand, Michael S. & Da Pra, Michelle & Pollack, Susan L. & Ralston, Katherine L. & Smith, Travis A. & Vogel, Stephen J. & Clark, Shellye & Lohr, Luanne & Low, Sarah A. & Newman, , 2010. "Local Food Systems: Concepts, Impacts, and Issues," Economic Research Report 96635, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
      • Martinez, Steve & Hand, Michael & Da Pra, Michelle & Pollack, Susan & Ralston, Katherine & Smith, Travis & Vogel, Stephen & Clarke, Shellye & Lohr, Luanne & Low, Sarah & Newman, Constance, 2010. "Local food systems: concepts, impacts, and issues," MPRA Paper 24313, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Buzby, Jean C. & Farah-Wells, Hodan & Hyman, Jeffrey, 2014. "The Estimated Amount, Value, and Calories of Postharvest Food Losses at the Retail and Consumer Levels in the United States," Economic Information Bulletin 164262, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. Matthew Mariola, 2008. "The local industrial complex? Questioning the link between local foods and energy use," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 25(2), pages 193-196, June.
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    1. Thomas P. Seager & Margaret M. Hinrichs, 2017. "Technology and science: innovation at the International Symposium on Sustainable Systems and Technology," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 1-5, March.
    2. Felix Haifeng Liao & Brendan Gordon & Colette DePhelps & Darin Saul & Chao Fan & Wenlong Feng, 2019. "A Land-Based and Spatial Assessment of Local Food Capacity in Northern Idaho, USA," Land, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-13, August.
    3. Felix Haifeng Liao & Robert Heinse & Darin Saul & Soren Newman & Li Huang & Colette DePhelps & Steven Peterson, 2023. "Assessment of the Environmental Impacts of a Localized Food System and Food Waste Reduction in a Water-Scarce Region Using Diet Optimization Models," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(10), pages 1-18, May.

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