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Projection of urban settlement in eco-sensitive hilly areas and its impact on peak runoff

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  • Sagarika Patowary

    (Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati)

  • Arup Kumar Sarma

    (Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati)

Abstract

Environmental degradation due to the rapid growth of urban sprawl to eco-sensitive areas emphasizes the need of future projection of urban settlement in eco-sensitive areas. As a promising step towards the eco-friendly urban development, this paper projects the urban settlement in hills of Guwahati city by using a well-validated urban settlement assessment model of the study area. Future values of the socio-economic, demographic and geographical parameters incorporated in the model have been determined with reference to the “Master Plan for Guwahati Metropolitan Area-2025”. As per this model projection, by 2025, average 25.45% of the hilly area of Guwahati city is going to have an unplanned urban settlement, whereas, in 2011, it was only 14.33%. Future landuse land cover change data of the hills have been generated by spatially distributing the projected urban settlement depending on the grid-wise elevation in hills. This type of projection, done on the basis of future socio-economic and demographic condition derived from the master plan of a city can be used for environmental impact assessment of the plan. Finally, by using Rational Method, the impact of the future urban settlement on peak run-off generation has been evaluated for a watershed in the Fatasil hill of Guwahati city. The hydrological study has shown an alarming result with a 20.75% increase in peak run-off due to the conversion of additional 14.5% of the watershed area to urban settlement.

Suggested Citation

  • Sagarika Patowary & Arup Kumar Sarma, 2020. "Projection of urban settlement in eco-sensitive hilly areas and its impact on peak runoff," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(6), pages 5833-5848, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:22:y:2020:i:6:d:10.1007_s10668-019-00453-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-019-00453-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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