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The contribution of large-scale atmospheric circulation to variations of observed near-surface wind speed across Sweden since 1926

Author

Listed:
  • Lorenzo Minola

    (University of Gothenburg
    Politecnico and University of Turin
    Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CIDE, CSIC-UV-Generalitat Valenciana))

  • Jessika Lönn

    (University of Gothenburg)

  • Cesar Azorin-Molina

    (Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CIDE, CSIC-UV-Generalitat Valenciana))

  • Chunlüe Zhou

    (University of Gothenburg)

  • Erik Engström

    (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI))

  • Lennart Wern

    (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI))

  • Sverker Hellström

    (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI))

  • Gangfeng Zhang

    (Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University)

  • Cheng Shen

    (University of Gothenburg)

  • Alessandro Pezzoli

    (Politecnico and University of Turin)

  • Deliang Chen

    (University of Gothenburg)

Abstract

This study investigates the centennial-scale (i.e., since 1926) variability of observed near-surface wind speed across Sweden. Results show that wind speed underwent various phases of change during 1926–2019, i.e., (a) a clear slowdown during 1926–1960; (b) a stabilization from 1960 to 1990; (c) another clear slowdown during 1990–2003; (d) a slight recovery/stabilization period for 2003–2014, which may continue with a possible new slowdown. Furthermore, the performance of three reanalysis products in representing past wind variations is evaluated. The observed low-frequency variability is properly simulated by the selected reanalyses and is linked to the variations of different large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (e.g., the North Atlantic Oscillation). However, the evident periods of decreasing trend during 1926–1960 and 1990–2003, which drive most of the stilling in the last century, are missing in the reanalyses and cannot be realistically modeled through multiple linear regression by only using indexes of atmospheric circulation. Therefore, this study reveals that changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation mainly drive the low-frequency variability of observed near-surface wind speed, while other factors (e.g., changes in surface roughness) are crucial for explaining the periods of strong terrestrial stilling across Sweden.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenzo Minola & Jessika Lönn & Cesar Azorin-Molina & Chunlüe Zhou & Erik Engström & Lennart Wern & Sverker Hellström & Gangfeng Zhang & Cheng Shen & Alessandro Pezzoli & Deliang Chen, 2023. "The contribution of large-scale atmospheric circulation to variations of observed near-surface wind speed across Sweden since 1926," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(5), pages 1-22, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:176:y:2023:i:5:d:10.1007_s10584-023-03525-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03525-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    2. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-670, Special I.
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