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Comparing transformation pathways across major economies

Author

Listed:
  • R. Schaeffer

    (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (COPPE/UFRJ))

  • A. Köberle

    (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (COPPE/UFRJ)
    Imperial College London (ICL))

  • H. L. Soest

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

  • C. Bertram

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • G. Luderer

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • K. Riahi

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • V. Krey

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • D. P. Vuuren

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

  • E. Kriegler

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • S. Fujimori

    (Kyoto University (KyotoU)
    National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES))

  • W. Chen

    (Tsinghua University (TU))

  • C. He

    (Energy Research Institute (ERI))

  • Z. Vrontisi

    (E3MLab, National Technical University of Athens)

  • S. Vishwanathan

    (Indian Institute of Management-Ahmedabad (IIMA))

  • A. Garg

    (Indian Institute of Management-Ahmedabad (IIMA))

  • R. Mathur

    (The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI))

  • S. Shekhar

    (The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI))

  • K. Oshiro

    (Mizuho Information & Research Institute (MHIR))

  • F. Ueckerdt

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • G. Safonov

    (Higher School of Economics (HSE))

  • G. Iyer

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL))

  • K. Gi

    (Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE))

  • V. Potashnikov

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))

Abstract

This paper explores the consequences of different policy assumptions and the derivation of globally consistent, national low-carbon development pathways for the seven largest greenhouse gas (GHG)–emitting countries (EU28 as a bloc) in the world, covering approximately 70% of global CO2 emissions, in line with their contributions to limiting global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C as compared with pre-industrial levels. We introduce the methodology for developing these pathways by initially discussing the process by which global integrated assessment model (IAM) teams interacted and derived boundary conditions in the form of carbon budgets for the different countries. Carbon budgets so derived for the 2011–2050 period were then used in eleven different national energy-economy models and IAMs for producing low-carbon pathways for the seven countries in line with a well below 2 °C world up to 2050. We present a comparative assessment of the resulting pathways and of the challenges and opportunities associated with them. Our results indicate quite different mitigation pathways for the different countries, shown by the way emission reductions are split between different sectors of their economies and technological alternatives.

Suggested Citation

  • R. Schaeffer & A. Köberle & H. L. Soest & C. Bertram & G. Luderer & K. Riahi & V. Krey & D. P. Vuuren & E. Kriegler & S. Fujimori & W. Chen & C. He & Z. Vrontisi & S. Vishwanathan & A. Garg & R. Mathu, 2020. "Comparing transformation pathways across major economies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 1787-1803, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:162:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02837-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02837-9
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