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Climate change and coffee: assessing vulnerability by modeling future climate suitability in the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico

Author

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  • Stephen J. Fain
  • Maya Quiñones
  • Nora L. Álvarez-Berríos
  • Isabel K. Parés-Ramos
  • William A. Gould

Abstract

Coffee production has long been culturally and economically important in Puerto Rico. However, since peaking in the late nineteenth century, harvests are near record lows with many former farms abandoned. While value-added markets present new opportunities to reinvigorate the industry, regional trends associated with climate change may threaten the ability to produce high-quality coffee. Here, we discuss the history of coffee in Puerto Rico, outline important bioclimatic parameters, and model current and future habitat suitability using statistically downscaled climate data. Model projections suggest that warming trends may surpass important temperature thresholds during the coming decades. Under high (A2) and mid-low (A1B) emission scenarios for 2011–2040, Puerto Rico is projected to exceed mean annual temperature parameters for growth of Coffea arabica. Warming and drying trends may accelerate after 2040 and could result in top producing municipalities losing 60–84% of highly suitable growing conditions by 2070. Under the A2 scenario, Puerto Rico may only retain 24 km2 of highly suitable conditions by 2071–2099. High temperatures and low precipitation levels can result in diminished quality and yields, as well as increased exposure and sensitivity to certain insects and diseases. The climate data and models used are based on best current understanding of climate and emission interactions with results best interpreted as projected climate trends rather than predictions of future weather. Planning, innovation, and adaptation provide promising avenues to address current and future socioecological challenges while building a model of sustainable and resilient coffee production in Puerto Rico and throughout the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen J. Fain & Maya Quiñones & Nora L. Álvarez-Berríos & Isabel K. Parés-Ramos & William A. Gould, 2018. "Climate change and coffee: assessing vulnerability by modeling future climate suitability in the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 175-186, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:146:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-017-1949-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1949-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christian Bunn & Peter Läderach & Oriana Ovalle Rivera & Dieter Kirschke, 2015. "A bitter cup: climate change profile of global production of Arabica and Robusta coffee," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 89-101, March.
    2. Louis Verchot & Meine Noordwijk & Serigne Kandji & Tom Tomich & Chin Ong & Alain Albrecht & Jens Mackensen & Cynthia Bantilan & K. Anupama & Cheryl Palm, 2007. "Climate change: linking adaptation and mitigation through agroforestry," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 12(5), pages 901-918, June.
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    1. Ali Sardar Shahraki & Tommaso Caloiero & Ommolbanin Bazrafshan, 2023. "Influence of Climatic Factors on Yields of Pistachio, Mango, and Bananas in Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-14, June.
    2. Yanxi Chen & Lixuan Ren & Yunsheng Lou & Liling Tang & Jianzhou Yang & Lei Su, 2022. "Effects of Climate Change on Climate Suitability of Green Orange Planting in Hainan Island, China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-13, February.
    3. Yen Pham & Kathryn Reardon-Smith & Shahbaz Mushtaq & Geoff Cockfield, 2019. "The impact of climate change and variability on coffee production: a systematic review," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(4), pages 609-630, October.
    4. Kimberly Stephenson & Byron Wilson & Michael Taylor & Kurt McLaren & Rick van Veen & John Kunna & Jayaka Campbell, 2022. "Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Tropical Dry Forest Fauna," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-24, April.

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