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Barriers and enablers to the use of seasonal climate forecasts amongst organisations in Europe

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  • Marta Bruno Soares

    (University of Leeds)

  • Suraje Dessai

    (University of Leeds)

Abstract

Seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) provide information about future climate variability that has the potential to benefit organisations and their decision-making. However, the production and availability of SCF does not guarantee its use in decision-making per se as a range of factors and conditions influence its use in different decision-making contexts. The aim of this paper is to identify the barriers and enablers to the use of SCF across organisations in Europe. To achieve that, we conducted 75 in-depth interviews with organisations working across eight sectors (including energy, transport, water and agriculture) and 16 countries. The majority of the organisations interviewed do not currently use SCF. This was due to the low reliability and skill of SCF in Europe but also with other non-technical aspects such as the lack of relevance and awareness of SCF in the organisations. Conversely, the main enabler to the use of SCF was the interactions with the providers of SCF. In addition, the level of organisational resources, capacity and expertise were also significant enablers to the use of SCF in organisations. This paper provides the first empirical assessment of the use of SCF in Europe. Such insights provide not only an overview of the existing barriers and enablers to the use of SCF in Europe and how these can be overcome and negotiated to enhance the usability of SCF, but can also help inform the broader and emerging context of climate services development in Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Marta Bruno Soares & Suraje Dessai, 2016. "Barriers and enablers to the use of seasonal climate forecasts amongst organisations in Europe," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 89-103, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:137:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1671-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1671-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christine Kirchhoff, 2013. "Understanding and enhancing climate information use in water management," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(2), pages 495-509, July.
    2. Barthelmie, R.J. & Murray, F. & Pryor, S.C., 2008. "The economic benefit of short-term forecasting for wind energy in the UK electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1687-1696, May.
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    3. Bett, Philip E & Thornton, Hazel E. & Troccoli, Alberto & De Felice, Matteo & Suckling, Emma & Dubus, Laurent & Saint-Drenan, Yves-Marie & Brayshaw, David J., 2019. "A simplified seasonal forecasting strategy, applied to wind and solar power in Europe," Earth Arxiv kzwqx, Center for Open Science.
    4. Dragana Bojovic & Andria Nicodemou & Asun Lera St.Clair & Isadora Christel & Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, 2022. "Exploring the landscape of seasonal forecast provision by Global Producing Centres," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-23, May.
    5. Kirsten Halsnæs & Lisa Bay & Mads Lykke Dømgaard & Per Skougaard Kaspersen & Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, 2020. "Accelerating Climate Service Development for Renewable Energy, Finance and Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-18, September.
    6. Machado, Elia Axinia & Purcell, Helene & Simons, Andrew M. & Swinehart, Stephanie, 2020. "The Quest for Greener Pastures: Evaluating the Livelihoods Impacts of Providing Vegetation Condition Maps to Pastoralists in Eastern Africa," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    7. De Felice, Matteo & Soares, Marta Bruno & Alessandri, Andrea & Troccoli, Alberto, 2019. "Scoping the potential usefulness of seasonal climate forecasts for solar power management," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 215-223.
    8. Blane Harvey & Lindsey Jones & Logan Cochrane & Roop Singh, 2019. "The evolving landscape of climate services in sub-Saharan Africa: What roles have NGOs played?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(1), pages 81-98, November.
    9. Surminski, Swenja & Barnes, Jonathan & Vincent, Katharine, 2022. "Can insurance catalyse government planning on climate? Emergent evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113564, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Mark R. Payne & Gokhan Danabasoglu & Noel Keenlyside & Daniela Matei & Anna K. Miesner & Shuting Yang & Stephen G. Yeager, 2022. "Skilful decadal-scale prediction of fish habitat and distribution shifts," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.

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