IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v120y2013i1p137-151.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate change trend in China, with improved accuracy

Author

Listed:
  • Tian-Xiang Yue
  • Na Zhao
  • R. Ramsey
  • Chen-Liang Wang
  • Ze-Meng Fan
  • Chuan-Fa Chen
  • Yi-Min Lu
  • Bai-Lian Li

Abstract

We have found that a spatial interpolation of mean annual temperature (MAT) in China can be accomplished using a global ordinary least squares regression model since the relationship between temperature and its environmental determinants is constant. Therefore the estimation of MAT does not very across space and thus exhibits spatial stationarity. The interpolation of mean annual precipitation (MAP), however, is more complex and changes spatially as a function of topographic variation. Therefore, MAP shows spatial non-stationarity and must be estimated with a geographically weighted regression. A statistical transfer function (STF) of MAT was formulated using minimized residuals output from a high accuracy and high speed method for surface modeling (HASM) with an ordinary least squares (OLS) linear equation that uses latitude and elevation as independent variables, abbreviated as HASM-OLS. The STF of MAP under a BOX-COX transformation is derived as a combination of minimized residuals output by HASM with a geographically weighted regression (GWR) using latitude, longitude, elevation, impact coefficient of aspect and sky view factor as independent variables, abbreviated as HASM-GWR-BC. In terms of HASM-OLS and HASM-GWR-BC, MAT had an increasing trend since the 1960s in China, with an especially accelerated increasing trend since 1980. Overall, our data show that MAT has increased by 1.44 °C since the 1960s. The warming rates increase from the south to north in China, except in the Qinghai-Xizang plateau. Specifically, the 2,100 °C · d contour line of annual accumulated temperature (AAT) of ≥10 °C shifted northwestward 255 km in the Heilongjiang province since the 1960s. MAP in Qinghai-Xizang plateau and in arid region had a continuously increasing trend. In the other 7 regions of China, MAP shows both increasing and decreasing trends. On average, China became wetter from the 1960s to the 1990s, but drier from the 1990s to 2000s. The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and Northern China experienced more climatic extremes than Southern China since the 1960s. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Tian-Xiang Yue & Na Zhao & R. Ramsey & Chen-Liang Wang & Ze-Meng Fan & Chuan-Fa Chen & Yi-Min Lu & Bai-Lian Li, 2013. "Climate change trend in China, with improved accuracy," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 137-151, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:120:y:2013:i:1:p:137-151
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0785-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-013-0785-5
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-013-0785-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lin, Weiqiang, 2014. "The politics of flying: aeromobile frictions in a mobile city," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 92-99.
    2. Steven Jeffery Crimp & David Gobbett & Philip Kokic & Uday Nidumolu & Mark Howden & Neville Nicholls, 2016. "Recent seasonal and long-term changes in southern Australian frost occurrence," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(1), pages 115-128, November.
    3. Miner-Romanoff, Karen, 2023. "Bigs in Blue: Police officer mentoring for middle-school students—Building trust and understanding through structured programming," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    4. Zhang, Bo & Sarathy, S. Mani, 2016. "Lifecycle optimized ethanol-gasoline blends for turbocharged engines," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 38-53.
    5. Yue, Tian-Xiang & Du, Zheng-Ping & Lu, Ming & Fan, Ze-Meng & Wang, Chen-Liang & Tian, Yong-Zhong & Xu, Bing, 2015. "Surface modeling of ecosystem responses to climatic change in Poyang Lake Basin of China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 306(C), pages 16-23.
    6. Berling, Peter & Eng-Larsson, Fredrik, 2017. "Environmental implications of transport contract choice - capacity investment and pricing under volume and capacity contracts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 261(1), pages 129-142.
    7. Guo, Mingxin & Song, Weiping & Buhain, Jeremy, 2015. "Bioenergy and biofuels: History, status, and perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 712-725.
    8. Zhihui Li & Xiangzheng Deng & Xi Chu & Gui Jin & Wei Qi, 2019. "An Outlook on the Biomass Energy Development Out to 2100 in China," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(4), pages 1359-1377, December.
    9. Bchir, Amani & Escalona, José M. & Gallé, Alexander & Hernández-Montes, Esther & Tortosa, Ignacio & Braham, Mohamed & Medrano, Hipolito, 2016. "Carbon isotope discrimination (δ13C) as an indicator of vine water status and water use efficiency (WUE): Looking for the most representative sample and sampling time," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 11-20.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:120:y:2013:i:1:p:137-151. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.