IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/annopr/v299y2021i1d10.1007_s10479-019-03272-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What if versus probabilistic scenarios: a neuroscientific analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Rosella Castellano

    (University of Rome Unitelma-Sapienza)

  • Marco Mancinelli

    (Sapienza University of Rome)

  • Giorgia Ponsi

    (Sapienza University of Rome
    IRCCS Fondazione Santa Lucia)

  • Gaetano Tieri

    (University of Rome Unitelma-Sapienza
    IRCCS Fondazione Santa Lucia)

Abstract

Nowadays financial products are extremely complex and the decision to choose among them could represent a stressful event for individuals. Information related to the risk/return profile of an investment instrument and the way it is represented (framing effect) are crucial in determining the outcome of individuals’ decisions. In this paper we consider two schemes that can be employed to represent the random performances of risky financial products, namely the what if and probabilistic scenarios frames. This paper aims at measuring the impact of the two above mentioned schemes on investors’ decision accuracy and peripheral nervous system activity. In particular, the goal is twofold: (1) to investigate the behavioural and physiological indexes elicited in the decision-making process of investors who have to choose on the basis of the two different schemes; (2) to investigate on the effect of time pressure when probabilistic scenarios or what if frames are used. The first point is investigated by means of a decision making task, while the second one by means of a perceptual one.

Suggested Citation

  • Rosella Castellano & Marco Mancinelli & Giorgia Ponsi & Gaetano Tieri, 2021. "What if versus probabilistic scenarios: a neuroscientific analysis," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 331-347, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:299:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-019-03272-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-019-03272-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10479-019-03272-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10479-019-03272-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rosella Castellano & Roy Cerqueti, 2013. "Roots and effects of financial misperception in a stochastic dominance framework," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 47(6), pages 3371-3389, October.
    2. Bates, Douglas & Mächler, Martin & Bolker, Ben & Walker, Steve, 2015. "Fitting Linear Mixed-Effects Models Using lme4," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 67(i01).
    3. Hämäläinen, Raimo P. & Luoma, Jukka & Saarinen, Esa, 2013. "On the importance of behavioral operational research: The case of understanding and communicating about dynamic systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 228(3), pages 623-634.
    4. Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S Mitchelli, 2007. "Financial Literacy and Retirement Preparedness: Evidence and Implications for Financial Education," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 42(1), pages 35-44, January.
    5. Aparna Gupta & Walter Murray, 2003. "How to Spend and Invest Retirement Savings," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 205-224, November.
    6. Mathieu Lajante & Olivier Droulers & Thibaut Dondaine & David Amarantini, 2012. "Opening the « black box » of electrodermal activity in consumer neuroscience research," Post-Print halshs-01109418, HAL.
    7. Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Pricing Interest-Rate-Derivative Securities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 573-592.
    8. Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia Mitchell, 2006. "Financial Literacy and Retirement Preparedness: Evidence and Implications for Financial Education Programs," Working Papers wp144, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    9. Hillenbrand, Adrian & Schmelzer, André, 2017. "Beyond information: Disclosure, distracted attention, and investor behavior," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 14-21.
    10. Robert A. Jarrow & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 17, pages 377-409, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1986. "Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages 251-278, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shen, Chung-Hua & Lin, Shih-Jie & Tang, De-Piao & Hsiao, Yu-Jen, 2016. "The relationship between financial disputes and financial literacy," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 46-65.
    2. Nicholas Reinholtz & Philip M. Fernbach & Bart de Langhe, 2021. "Do People Understand the Benefit of Diversification?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7322-7343, December.
    3. Yoshihiko Kadoya & Mostafa Saidur Rahim Khan, 2018. "Can financial literacy reduce anxiety about life in old age?," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(12), pages 1533-1550, December.
    4. Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2008. "Planning and Financial Literacy: How Do Women Fare?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 413-417, May.
    5. Goda, Gopi Shah & Manchester, Colleen Flaherty & Sojourner, Aaron J., 2014. "What will my account really be worth? Experimental evidence on how retirement income projections affect saving," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 80-92.
    6. Beshears, John & Choi, James J. & Laibson, David & Madrian, Brigitte C., 2011. "Behavioral economics perspectives on public sector pension plans," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 315-336, April.
    7. Noviarini, Jelita & Coleman, Andrew & Roberts, Helen & Whiting, Rosalind H., 2023. "Financial literacy and retirees' resource allocation decisions in New Zealand," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Florian Deuflhard & Dimitris Georgarakos & Roman Inderst, 2019. "Financial Literacy and Savings Account Returns," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 131-164.
    9. Dan Goldhaber & Cyrus Grout, 2016. "Pension Choices and the Savings Patterns of Public School Teachers," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 11(4), pages 449-481, Fall.
    10. Lusardi, Annamaria & Mitchell, Olivia S., 2011. "Financial literacy and retirement planning in the United States," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(4), pages 509-525, October.
    11. Alfonso Arellano & Noelia Camara & David Tuesta, 2014. "El efecto de la autoconfianza en el conocimiento financiero," Working Papers 1427, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    12. Hero Ashman & Seth Neumuller, 2020. "Can Income Differences Explain the Racial Wealth Gap: A Quantitative Analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 220-239, January.
    13. Meier, Stephan & Sprenger, Charles D., 2013. "Discounting financial literacy: Time preferences and participation in financial education programs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 159-174.
    14. Alserda, Gosse A.G. & Dellaert, Benedict G.C. & Swinkels, Laurens & van der Lecq, Fieke S.G., 2019. "Individual pension risk preference elicitation and collective asset allocation with heterogeneity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 206-225.
    15. Lusardi, Annamaria & Mitchell, Olivia S., 2007. "Financial literacy and retirement planning: New evidence from the Rand American Life Panel," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/33, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    16. Bechly, Paul Lorin, 2019. "An Examination of Demographic Differences in Obtaining Investment and Financial Planning Information," OSF Preprints vn8yj, Center for Open Science.
    17. J. Collins, 2011. "Mortgage Mistakes? Demographic Factors Associated with Problematic Loan Application Behaviors," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 586-599, December.
    18. Florina Salaghe & Dimitra Papadovasilaki & Federico Guerrero & James Sundali, 2020. "Temptation and Retirement Accounts: A Story of Time Inconsistency and Bounded Rationality," Athens Journal of Business & Economics, Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), vol. 6(3), pages 173-198, April.
    19. Silverman, Dan & Slemrod, Joel & Uler, Neslihan, 2014. "Distinguishing the role of authority “in” and authority “to”," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 32-42.
    20. Sergi Jiménez‐Martín & José M. Labeaga‐Azcona & Cristina Vilaplana‐Prieto, 2016. "Interactions between Private Health and Long‐term Care Insurance and the Effects of the Crisis: Evidence for Spain," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(S2), pages 159-179, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:299:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-019-03272-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.