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ADTreesLogit model for customer churn prediction

Author

Listed:
  • Jiayin Qi
  • Li Zhang
  • Yanping Liu
  • Ling Li
  • Yongpin Zhou
  • Yao Shen
  • Liang Liang
  • Huaizu Li

Abstract

In this paper, we propose ADTreesLogit, a model that integrates the advantage of ADTrees model and the logistic regression model, to improve the predictive accuracy and interpretability of existing churn prediction models. We show that the overall predictive accuracy of ADTreesLogit model compares favorably with that of TreeNet®, a model which won the Gold Prize in the 2003 mobile customer churn prediction modeling contest (The Duke/NCR Teradata Churn Modeling Tournament). In fact, ADTreesLogit has better predictive accuracy than TreeNet® on two important observation points. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2009

Suggested Citation

  • Jiayin Qi & Li Zhang & Yanping Liu & Ling Li & Yongpin Zhou & Yao Shen & Liang Liang & Huaizu Li, 2009. "ADTreesLogit model for customer churn prediction," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 168(1), pages 247-265, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:168:y:2009:i:1:p:247-265:10.1007/s10479-008-0400-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-008-0400-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. K. Coussement & D. Van Den Poel, 2006. "Churn Prediction in Subscription Services: an Application of Support Vector Machines While Comparing Two Parameter-Selection Techniques," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 06/412, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    2. Mihelis, G. & Grigoroudis, E. & Siskos, Y. & Politis, Y. & Malandrakis, Y., 2001. "Customer satisfaction measurement in the private bank sector," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 347-360, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. K. W. De Bock & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "Reconciling Performance and Interpretability in Customer Churn Prediction using Ensemble Learning based on Generalized Additive Models," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/805, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    2. Chen, Zhen-Yu & Fan, Zhi-Ping & Sun, Minghe, 2012. "A hierarchical multiple kernel support vector machine for customer churn prediction using longitudinal behavioral data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 223(2), pages 461-472.
    3. Koen W. de Bock & Arno de Caigny, 2021. "Spline-rule ensemble classifiers with structured sparsity regularization for interpretable customer churn modeling," Post-Print hal-03391564, HAL.
    4. López-Díaz, María Concepción & López-Díaz, Miguel & Martínez-Fernández, Sergio, 2023. "On the optimal binary classifier with an application," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    5. Brandner, Hubertus & Lessmann, Stefan & Voß, Stefan, 2013. "A memetic approach to construct transductive discrete support vector machines," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 230(3), pages 581-595.

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