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Czy Polska powinna przystąpić do strefy euro?

Author

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  • Dariusz K. Rosati

Abstract

Przedmiotem artykułu jest kwestia wejścia Polski do strefy euro. W szczególności, autor stara się odpowiedzieć na trzy pytania: po pierwsze, czy Polska ma prawnomiędzynarodowy obowiązek wejścia do strefy euro, po drugie, czy przyjęcie wspólnej waluty jest dla Polski korzystne, i po trzecie, jeśli tak, kiedy i na jakich warunkach powinniśmy wprowadzić wspólną walutę. Odpowiadając na pierwsze pytanie autor wskazuje, że Traktaty Europejskie nakładają na państwa członkowskie obowiązek uczestnictwa w unii walutowej, i podkreśla, że ponieważ w trakcie negocjacji akcesyjnych Polska nie ubiegała się o uchylenie tego obowiązku, znalazł się on w Traktacie Akcesyjnym przyjętym przez Polskę w drodze referendum. Odpowiadając na drugie pytanie, autor dowodzi, że Polska spełnia kryteria optymalnego obszaru walutowego w stopniu nie mniejszym niż wiele innych państw członkowskich strefy euro, a następnie podejmuje próbę oszacowania wielkości niektórych korzyści i kosztów związanych z akcesją. Przeprowadzona analiza pokazuje, że wejście do strefy euro jest dla Polski korzystne, a skala korzyści netto może wynosić w dłuższym okresie ok. 1,5-2,0% PKB w skali roku. Odpowiadając na trzecie pytanie, autor wskazuje, że wejście do strefy euro wymaga uprzedniego spełnienia szeregu warunków, obejmujących – oprócz kryteriów konwergencji nominalnej wymaganych Traktatem – także zmianę Konstytucji, stworzenie zabezpieczeń przed nowymi rodzajami zagrożeń jakie akcesja może nieść dla stabilności makroekonomicznej, oraz uzyskanie większego poparcia społecznego dla akcesji.

Suggested Citation

  • Dariusz K. Rosati, 2013. "Czy Polska powinna przystąpić do strefy euro?," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 10, pages 5-37.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgh:gosnar:y:2013:i:10:p:5-37
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Aleksandra Ostrowska & Paulina Pukin-Sowul, 2023. "Macroeconomic Stability of Central and Eastern European Countries in the Context of Monetary Integration," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 390-408.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    strefa euro; integracja walutowa; Unia Europejska;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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