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Нелинейная динамическая модель взаимодействия фискальной и монетарной политик России // A Nonlinear Dynamic Model of the Russian Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interaction

Author

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  • Alan Karaev K.

    (Financial University)

  • А. Караев К.

    (Финансовый университет)

Abstract

A dynamic nonlinear model is proposed to study the interaction between the fiscal policy, with Russia’s public debt level as a tool, and the monetary policy through the Central Bank’s response function. Any change in the monetary policy caused by deviations from a targeted level always generates fiscal consequences. Therefore, this model can be helpful for revealing possible relations between the public debt and the search for a targeted inflation index using a real interest rate for the Russian economy. A comparative country analysis of the results of using the inflation targeting regime was made based on the simulation of the interaction between the fiscal and monetary policies for Russia, Brazil and the United Kingdom. The conditions for ensuring stability and sustainability of the aggregate public debt trajectory and a real interest rate are examined. В статье рассмотрено с помощью динамической нелинейной модели взаимодействие фискальной политики, одним из инструментов которой является уровень государственного долга России, и монетарной политики посредством функции реакции Центрального банка. Изменения в монетарной политике, возникающие из-за отклонений от целевого таргетируемого уровня, всегда порождают фискальные последствия. Поэтому представляется полезным, используя эту модель, выявить возможные отношения между государственным долгом и поиском таргетируемого показателя инфляции с помощью реальной процентной ставки для экономики России. Проведен сравнительный страновой анализ результатов использования режима таргетирования инфляции на основе результатов моделирования взаимодействия фискальной и монетарной политики для России, Бразилии и Великобритании. Рассмотрены условия обеспечения стабильности и устойчивости совокупной траектории государственного долга и реальной процентной ставки.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan Karaev K. & А. Караев К., 2017. "Нелинейная динамическая модель взаимодействия фискальной и монетарной политик России // A Nonlinear Dynamic Model of the Russian Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interaction," Экономика. Налоги. Право // Economics, taxes & law, ФГОБУ "Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации" // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 10(3), pages 43-51.
    • Handle: RePEc:scn:econom:y:2017:i:3:p:43-51
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    References listed on IDEAS

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