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Predicting the Winner of Tied National Football League Games

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  • Jared Quenzel
  • Paul Shea

Abstract

We construct a data set of all 429 tied at the half regular season National Football League (NFL) games between 1994 and 2012. We then examine whether or not the path taken to reach the tie (e.g., rushing yards, turnovers, etc.) has any ability to predict the eventual winner. Our main finding is that only the point spread is significantly predictive, although there is weak evidence to suggest that allowing more sacks reduces the chances of winning. Surprisingly, we find that the team receiving the first possession of the second half does not enjoy a statistically significant advantage. Teams should thus simply try to maximize their first half lead without expecting that first half strategies such as “establishing the run†will pay dividends in the second half.

Suggested Citation

  • Jared Quenzel & Paul Shea, 2016. "Predicting the Winner of Tied National Football League Games," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 17(7), pages 661-671, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:17:y:2016:i:7:p:661-671
    DOI: 10.1177/1527002514539688
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Justin Cox & Adam L. Schwartz & Bonnie F. Van Ness & Robert A. Van Ness, 2021. "The Predictive Power of College Football Spreads: Regular Season Versus Bowl Games," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(3), pages 251-273, April.
    2. Yazan F. Roumani, 2023. "Sports analytics in the NFL: classifying the winner of the superbowl," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 715-730, June.

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