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Climate Shocks, Political Institutions, and Nomadic Invasions in Early Modern East Asia

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  • Weiwen Yin

Abstract

While a large literature argues negative climate shocks can trigger conflicts, recent findings suggest moderate climatic conditions lead to war. This article proposes a conditional theory by incorporating political institution as a moderating variable. I argue that, under the impact of negative climate shocks, centralized societies can mobilize more resources for war, compared to decentralized societies. Thus, the former is more likely to resort to well-organized plundering to address the scarcity problem caused by detrimental climate shocks. Besides, centralized societies have little incentive to plunder when the climatic conditions are moderate, as they can collect taxes regularly through centralized institutions. A comparison between the more centralized Manchurian and the less centralized Mongols on their conflictual behavior serves as an empirical test. I find that temperature was negatively associated with the probability of Manchurian invasion after they embraced centralization but had a positive effect on the likelihood of Mongol invasion.

Suggested Citation

  • Weiwen Yin, 2020. "Climate Shocks, Political Institutions, and Nomadic Invasions in Early Modern East Asia," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(6), pages 1043-1069, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:64:y:2020:i:6:p:1043-1069
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002719889665
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dincecco, Mark & Federico, Giovanni & Vindigni, Andrea, 2011. "Warfare, Taxation, and Political Change: Evidence from the Italian Risorgimento," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 887-914, December.
    2. Qiang Chen, 2015. "Climate shocks, dynastic cycles and nomadic conquests: evidence from historical China," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(2), pages 185-204.
    3. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Olivier Damette & Stephane Goutte & Qing Pei, 2020. "Climate and nomadic migration in a nonlinear world: evidence of the historical China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 2055-2071, December.
    2. Shuo Chen & Debin Ma, 2022. "States and wars: China’s long march towards unity and its consequences, 221 BC – 1911 AD," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _199, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Ma, Debin & Chen, Shuo, 2020. "States and Wars: China’s Long March towards Unity and its Consequences, 221 BC – 1911 AD," CEPR Discussion Papers 15187, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Mitchell, Austin M. & Yin, Weiwen, 2022. "Political centralization, career incentives, and local economic growth in Edo Japan," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    5. Shuo, Chen & Ma, Debin, 2020. "States and Wars: China’s Long March towards Unity and its Consequences, 221 BC – 1911 AD," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 505, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).

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