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Estimating Export Activity in a Regional Economy: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of Alternative Methods

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  • Andrew M. Isserman

    (Departments of Urban and Regional Planning and Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois 61801 USA)

Abstract

Four methods of estimating exports are widely used in regional analysis, particularly with the economic base model. The theoretical rationales for each are examined. An interpretation of the minimum requirement method is offered which solves the oft-noted, non-importation problem. The difference between the minimum requirement and location quotient estimates is proven not to be an estimate of imports as is widely believed, and a relatively new econometric method is shown to over-estimate exports. Estimates of exports are calculated for 101 metropolitan areas in the United States. Both theoretical and empirical evidence indicates that the location quotient method underestimates, yet the minimum requirement method produced lower estimates for 22 areas. The results suggest that the choice of estimation method may affect the results of sub-sequent analyses.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew M. Isserman, 1980. "Estimating Export Activity in a Regional Economy: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of Alternative Methods," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 5(2), pages 155-184, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:inrsre:v:5:y:1980:i:2:p:155-184
    DOI: 10.1177/016001768000500204
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    4. Berck, Peter & Costello, Christopher & Hoffmann, Sandra A. & Fortmann, Louise, 1999. "Poverty program participation and employment in timber-dependent counties," CUDARE Working Papers 43913, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    5. Johannes Többen & Tobias Heinrich Kronenberg, 2015. "Construction Of Multi-Regional Input--Output Tables Using The Charm Method," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4), pages 487-507, December.
    6. Lisa Morris Grobar, 1996. "Comparing The New England And Southern California Regional Recessions," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 14(3), pages 71-84, July.
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    9. John C. Leatherman & David W. Marcouiller, 1996. "Estimating Tourism's Share Of Local Income From Secondary Data Sources," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 26(3), pages 317-339, Winter.
    10. Reza Banai-Kashani, 1988. "A Note on the Subregional Employment Impact of Urban Revitalization," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 18(3), pages 41-46, Fall.
    11. Bender, Lloyd D., 1984. "Differences In The Timepaths Of Service Employment Responses: Rapid Growth and Local Planning," Staff Reports 277653, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    12. Gordon F. Mulligan & Alexander C. Vias, 1996. "An Assessment Of The Assignment Method In Economic Base Analysis," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 26(3), pages 265-284, Winter.
    13. Myles Patton & Wei Xia & Siyi Feng & Victor Hewitt, 2016. "Summary," EuroChoices, The Agricultural Economics Society, vol. 15(3), pages 47-53, December.
    14. Dan S. Rickman & Steven R. Miller & Russell McKenzie, 2009. "Spatial and sectoral linkages in regional models: A Bayesian vector autoregression forecast evaluation," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(1), pages 29-41, March.
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