IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/globus/v18y2017i4p811-824.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Financial Development and Money Demand Function: Cointegration, Causality and Variance Decomposition Analysis for Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Ahad

Abstract

This study has investigated money demand function incorporating financial development, industrial production, income and exchange rate for Pakistan for time span from 1972 to 2012. Bayer–Hanck combined cointegration and Johansen cointegration approaches have been used to test cointegration among variables and vector error correction model (VECM) approach has been applied to explain the direction of causality in the long run and short run. Unit root problem has been tested by augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) and Phillips–Perron (PP) unit root tests. The results indicate that feedback effect is found between financial development and money demand. There is a long-run relationship existing among money demand, financial development, income, industrial production and exchange rate. Financial development is the main factor to determine money demand function in both long run and short run.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Ahad, 2017. "Financial Development and Money Demand Function: Cointegration, Causality and Variance Decomposition Analysis for Pakistan," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 18(4), pages 811-824, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:globus:v:18:y:2017:i:4:p:811-824
    DOI: 10.1177/0972150917692209
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0972150917692209
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0972150917692209?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Birendra Bahadur Budha, 2011. "An Empirical Analysis of Money Demand Function in Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 23(1), pages 54-70, April.
    2. Shigeyuki Hamori & Naoko Hamori, 2009. "Empirical Analysis of the Money Demand Function in the Euro Area," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Introduction Of The Euro And The Monetary Policy Of The European Central Bank, chapter 2, pages 31-58, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Laumas, Gurcharan S & Mehra, Y P, 1976. "The Stability of the Demand for Money Function: The Evidence from Qtrly Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 58(4), pages 463-468, November.
    4. Bhatta, Siddha Raj, 2011. "Stability of demand for money function in Nepal: A cointegration and error correction modeling approach," MPRA Paper 41404, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Prakash Singh & Manoj Kumar Pandey, 2010. "Financial Innovation and Stability of Money Demand Function in Post–reform period in India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(4), pages 2895-2905.
    6. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    7. Qayyum, Abdul, 1998. "Error Correction Model of the Demand for Money in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 2582, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 1998.
    8. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    9. Anindya Banerjee & Juan Dolado & Ricardo Mestre, 1998. "Error‐correction Mechanism Tests for Cointegration in a Single‐equation Framework," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 267-283, May.
    10. Christian Bayer & Christoph Hanck, 2013. "Combining non-cointegration tests," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 83-95, January.
    11. Muhammad Shahbaz & Mohammad Mafizur Rahman, 2012. "The Dynamic of Financial Development, Imports, Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Cointegration and Causality Analysis in Pakistan," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 13(2), pages 201-219, June.
    12. Takeshi Inoue & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis of the Money Demand Function in India," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: INDIAN ECONOMY Empirical Analysis on Monetary and Financial Issues in India, chapter 2, pages 9-26, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Abdul Qayyum, 2005. "Modelling the Demand for Money in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 44(3), pages 233-252.
    14. GARCIA-HIERNAUX, Alfredo & CERNO, Leonel, 2006. "Empirical Evidence For A Money Demand Function: A Panel Data Analysis Of 27 Countries In 1988-98," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(1).
    15. Emmanuel Anoruo, 2002. "Stability of the Nigerian M2 Money Demand Function in the SAP Period," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 14(3), pages 1-9.
    16. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    17. Sosunov, K., 2013. "Estimation of the Money Demand Function in Russia," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 89-99.
    18. Omer, Muhammad, 2009. "Stability of money demand function in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 35306, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Claus Brand & Nuno Cassola, 2004. "A money demand system for euro area M3," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(8), pages 817-838.
    20. Judd, John P & Scadding, John L, 1982. "The Search for a Stable Money Demand Function: A Survey of the Post-1973 Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 993-1023, September.
    21. Kumar, Saten & Manoka, Billy, 2008. "Testing the Stability of Demand for Money in Tonga," MPRA Paper 19300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Ivars Tillers, 2004. "Money Demand in Latvia," Working Papers 2004/03, Latvijas Banka.
    23. Samreth, Sovannroeun, 2008. "Estimating Money Demand Function in Cambodia: ARDL Approach," MPRA Paper 16274, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2009.
    24. John P. Judd & John L. Scadding, 1982. "The search for a stable money demand function: a survey of the post- 1973 literature," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 109, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    25. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 2001. "How stable is M2 money demand function in Japan?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 455-461, December.
    26. Dumitru, Ionut, 2002. "Money Demand in Romania," MPRA Paper 10629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Taylor, Mark P, 1993. "Modeling the Demand for U.K. Broad Money, 1871-1913," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(1), pages 112-117, February.
    28. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Yongqing Wang, 2007. "How Stable Is The Demand For Money In China?," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 21-33, June.
    29. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Raymond Chi Wing Ng, 2002. "Long-Run Demand for Money in Hong Kong: An Application of the ARDL Model," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 1(2), pages 147-155, August.
    30. Peter Boswijk, H., 1994. "Testing for an unstable root in conditional and structural error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 37-60, July.
    31. Hafer, R W & Jansen, Dennis W, 1991. "The Demand for Money in the United States: Evidence from Cointegration Tests," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 155-168, May.
    32. Ferda Halicioglu & Mehmet Ugur, 2005. "On stability of the demand for money in a developing OECD country: the case of Turkey," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(2/3), pages 203-213.
    33. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    34. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    35. Tang, Chor Foon, 2007. "The stability of money demand function in Japan: Evidence from rolling cointegration approach," MPRA Paper 19807, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    36. Ferda HALICIOGLU & Mehmet UGUR, 2005. "On Stability of the Demand for Money in a Developing OECD," Macroeconomics 0508001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    37. Yuba Raj Khatiwada Ph. D., 1997. "Estimating the Demand for Money in Nepal: Some Empirical Issues," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 9, pages 1-43, April.
    38. I. U. Mangla, 1979. "An Annual Money Demand Function for Pakistan. Some Further Results," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 18(1), pages 21-33.
    39. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2007. "Money Demand in Estonia," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 675, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    40. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-193, January.
    41. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2015. "Unconventional monetary policy and money demand," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 40-54.
    42. Birendra Bahadur Budha, 2011. "An Empirical Analysis of Money Demand Function in Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 23(1), pages 54-70, April.
    43. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hafez Rehman, 2005. "Stability of the money demand function in Asian developing countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(7), pages 773-792.
    44. Akinlo, A. Enisan, 2006. "The stability of money demand in Nigeria: An autoregressive distributed lag approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 445-452, May.
    45. Subramanian S. Sriram, 2001. "A Survey of Recent Empirical Money Demand Studies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(3), pages 1-3.
    46. Sarwar, haroon & Hussian, zakir & Awan, masood sarwar, 2011. "Money Demand Functions for Pakistan (Divisia Approach)," MPRA Paper 34361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    47. Afsin Sahin, 2013. "Estimating Money Demand Function by a Smooth Transition Regression Model: An Evidence for Turkey," Working Papers 791, Economic Research Forum, revised Nov 2013.
    48. Naoko Hamori & Shigeyuki Hamori, 1999. "Stability of the money demand function in Germany," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(5), pages 329-332.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adil, Masudul Hasan & Haider, Salman & Hatekar, Neeraj, 2018. "The empirical verification of money demand in case of India: Post-reform era," MPRA Paper 87148, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Jun 2018.
    2. Tarak Nath Sahu & Krishna Dayal Pandey, 2020. "Money Supply and Equity Price Movements During the Liberalized Period in India," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(1), pages 108-123, February.
    3. Masudul Hasan Adil & Rafiq Hussain & Adelajda Matuka, 2022. "Interest rate sensitivity of demand for money and effectiveness of monetary policy: fresh evidence from combined cointegration test and ARDL approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(7), pages 1-24, July.
    4. Ufuk CAN & Zeynep Gizem CAN & Süleyman DEĞİRMEN, 2019. "Paranın Dolaşım Hızının ve Para Talebi Fonksiyonunun Ekonometrik Analizi: Türkiye Örneği," Istanbul Business Research, Istanbul University Business School, vol. 48(2), pages 218-247, November.
    5. Michael Asiedu & Patrick Bimpong & Thomas Hezkeal Nan Khela & Benedict Arthur, 2021. "Long-Run Money Demand Function: Search for Stability in Twenty (20) Non-EMU Member Countries," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(1), pages 58-87, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Muhammad Ahad & Adeel Ahmad Dar, 2018. "A Dynamic Relationship between Financial Development and Import Demand for Bangladesh: An Evidence from Combine Cointegration and Granger Causality Approach," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(3), pages 543-555, June.
    2. Muhammad Ahad, 2017. "Impact of Financial Development on Trade Balance: An ARDL Cointegration and Causality Approach for Pakistan," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 18(5), pages 1199-1214, October.
    3. Masudul Hasan Adil & Rafiq Hussain & Adelajda Matuka, 2022. "Interest rate sensitivity of demand for money and effectiveness of monetary policy: fresh evidence from combined cointegration test and ARDL approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(7), pages 1-24, July.
    4. S. M. Woahid Murad & Ruhul Salim & Md. Golam Kibria, 2021. "Asymmetric Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Demand for Money in India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(3), pages 451-470, September.
    5. Muhammad Shahbaz & Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Stanislav Ivanov & Nanthakumar Loganathan, 2017. "The nexus between tourism demand and output per capita with the relative importance of trade openness and financial development," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(1), pages 168-186, February.
    6. Bhatta, Siddha Raj, 2011. "Stability of demand for money function in Nepal: A cointegration and error correction modeling approach," MPRA Paper 41404, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Adnan Haider & Asad Jan & Kalim Hyder, 2013. "On the (Ir)Relevance of Monetary Aggregate Targeting in Pakistan: An Eclectic View," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 65-119, July-Dec.
    8. Muzammil, Muhammad, 2015. "Impact of Financial Development on Trade Balance: An ARDL Cointegration and Causality Approach for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 68587, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Muhammad Ahad & Adeel Ahmad Dar & Muhammad Imran, 2019. "Does Financial Development Promote Industrial Production in Pakistan? Evidence from Combined Cointegration and Causality Approach," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 20(2), pages 297-312, April.
    10. Ahad, Muhammad & Dar, Adeel Ahmad, 2017. "Modeling the Asymmetric Impact of Defense Spending on Economic Growth: An Evidence from Nonlinear ARDL and Multipliers," MPRA Paper 80085, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2017.
    11. Abdullah, Muhammad & Chani, Muhammad Irfan & Ali, Amjad, 2012. "Determinants of Money Demand in Pakistan: Disaggregated Expenditure Approach," MPRA Paper 50977, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2013.
    12. Phouphet Kyophilavong & Gazi Salah Uddin & Muhammad Shahbaz & Charles Harvie & Teerawat Charoenrat, 2019. "Money Demand in a Dollarized Economy: Evidence from Laos PDR," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 18(1), pages 99-115, Winter/Sp.
    13. Barnett, William A. & Ghosh, Taniya & Adil, Masudul Hasan, 2022. "Is money demand really unstable? Evidence from Divisia monetary aggregates," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 606-622.
    14. Faisal Faisal & Ruqiya Pervaiz & Nesrin Ozatac & Turgut Tursoy, 2021. "Exploring the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions, urbanisation and financial deepening for Turkey using the symmetric and asymmetric causality approaches," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(12), pages 17374-17402, December.
    15. Singh, Manish K. & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2021. "Quantifying sovereign risk in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 76-96.
    16. Bassey Nsikan Edet & Solomon Ubong Udo & Okon Ubokudom Etim, 2017. "Modelling the Demand for Money Function in Nigeria: Is There Stability?," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 6(1), pages 45-57, March.
    17. Muhammad Ahad, 2016. "Nexus between Income Inequality, Crime, Inflation and Poverty: NewEvidence fromStructural Breaksfor Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 4(3), pages 133-145, March.
    18. Manamba EPAPHRA, 2017. "An Econometric Analysis of Demand for Money and its Stability in Tanzania," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 167-192, June.
    19. Yongliang Zhang & Md. Qamruzzaman & Salma Karim & Ishrat Jahan, 2021. "Nexus between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Renewable Energy Consumption in BRIC Nations: The Mediating Role of Foreign Direct Investment and Financial Development," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-29, August.
    20. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh & Ivanov, Stanislav & Loganathan, Nanthakumar, 2015. "Nexus between Tourism demand and output per capita with relative importance of trade and financial development: A study of Malaysia," MPRA Paper 67226, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Oct 2015.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial development; money demand; cointegration; causality; Pakistan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:globus:v:18:y:2017:i:4:p:811-824. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.imi.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.