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A New Model for Predicting Policy Choices

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  • Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

    (Wilf Family Department of Politics, New York University)

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    Abstract

    A new forecasting model, solved for Bayesian Perfect Equilibria, is introduced. It, along with several alternative models, is tested on data from the European Union. The new model, which allows for contingent forecasts and for generating confidence intervals around predictions, outperforms competing models in most tests despite the absence of variance on a critical variable in all but nine cases. The more proximate the political setting of the issues is to the new model’s underlying theory of competitive and potentially coercive politics, the better the new model does relative to other models tested in the European Union context.

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    File URL: http://cmp.sagepub.com/content/28/1/65.abstract
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Peace Science Society (International) in its journal Conflict Management and Peace Science.

    Volume (Year): 28 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 1 (February)
    Pages: 65-87

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    Handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:28:y:2011:i:1:p:65-87

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    Web page: http://pss.la.psu.edu/

    Related research

    Keywords: Bayesian updating; forecasting; game theory; prediction; policy engineering; policy analysis;

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