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A New Model for Predicting Policy Choices

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  • Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

    (Wilf Family Department of Politics, New York University)

Abstract

A new forecasting model, solved for Bayesian Perfect Equilibria, is introduced. It, along with several alternative models, is tested on data from the European Union. The new model, which allows for contingent forecasts and for generating confidence intervals around predictions, outperforms competing models in most tests despite the absence of variance on a critical variable in all but nine cases. The more proximate the political setting of the issues is to the new model’s underlying theory of competitive and potentially coercive politics, the better the new model does relative to other models tested in the European Union context.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 2011. "A New Model for Predicting Policy Choices," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(1), pages 65-87, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:28:y:2011:i:1:p:65-87
    DOI: 10.1177/0738894210388127
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gerald Schneider & Daniel Finke & Stefanie Bailer, 2010. "Bargaining Power in the European Union: An Evaluation of Competing Game‐Theoretic Models," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 58(1), pages 85-103, February.
    2. Green, Kesten C., 2002. "Embroiled in a conflict: who do you call?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 389-395.
    3. Gerald Schneider & Daniel Finke & Stefanie Bailer, 2010. "Bargaining Power in the European Union: An Evaluation of Competing Game-Theoretic Models," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 58, pages 85-103, February.
    4. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 1997. "A decision making model: Its structure and form," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3-4), pages 235-266, May.
    5. Ray, James Lee & Russett, Bruce, 1996. "The Future as Arbiter of Theoretical Controversies: Predictions, Explanations and the End of the Cold War," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 441-470, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zambrano Andrés & Zuleta Hernando, 2017. "Goal and Strategies of an Insurgent Group: Violent and Non-violent Actions," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 23(2), pages 1-7, April.
    2. Çiflikli, Gökhan & Metternich, Nils W, 2019. "We predict conflict better than we thought! Taking time seriously when evaluating predictions in Binary-Time-Series-Cross-Section-Data," SocArXiv tvshu, Center for Open Science.
    3. Brandt, Patrick T. & Freeman, John R. & Schrodt, Philip A., 2014. "Evaluating forecasts of political conflict dynamics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 944-962.

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