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Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Evolution

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Author Info

  • Lóránd István KRÁLIK

    (Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest)

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between local and global macroeconomic factors and stock market indices in Romania using the framework of the macroeconomic APT model. Many researchers have demonstrated that macroeconomic conditions affect risk factors and influence asset returns. However, it is well-known that emerging markets` asset returns are characterized by higher volatility than on developed markets. Using the stepwise analysis method we found some evidence of the effects of exchange rates, interest rates (global), gold price, global stock indices and oil prices on stock returns of the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE). We also investigate the effects of macroeconomic factors on the investment firm`s indices, BET-FI. The results of a Vector Autoregressive model (VAR) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) indicate the short and long run linkages between macroeconomic variables and BSE indices.

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File URL: http://www.revistadestatistica.ro/suplimente/2012/2/srrs2_2012a28.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Romanian Statistical Review in its journal Romanian Statistical Review Supplement.

Volume (Year): 60 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 197-203

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Handle: RePEc:rsr:supplm:v:60:y:2012:i:2:p:197-203

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Related research

Keywords: stock market index; arbitrage pricing theory; macroeconomic variables; VAR; interest rate;

References

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  1. Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise, 2011. "Macroeconomic Variables and South African Stock Return Predictability," Working Papers 201107, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  2. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2012. "Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 227-240.
  3. Birz, Gene & Lott Jr., John R., 2011. "The effect of macroeconomic news on stock returns: New evidence from newspaper coverage," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2791-2800, November.
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