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Cluster Analysis of Market Potential in Emerging Markets: A Dynamic Research based on Markov Chain

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  • Da Huo

    ()
    (School of International Trade and Economics, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing, China)

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    Abstract

    The emerging economy is playing an important role in the global market. Market potential of emerging markets is also a determinant in a wide range of market decisions of the global managers. For the reason that the market potential consists of a number of different factors across different countries, this research divides the emerging market countries into different clusters, and analyzes their different attributes by cluster analysis. Also, the network relationships between the emerging markets and their attributes across different clusters are further researched. It is found that countries at a higher level of market potential also show a higher level of economic freedom, commercial infrastructure, market intensity and market consumption capacity. With the development of their economies, the emerging markets have experienced different transitions. This research further estimates the switching probabilities across different clusters by a Markov chain model. Future ratios of different country clusters in the emerging markets are also forecasted. This research will be helpful to the global managers and cross-border investors in developing a further understanding of future changes in market potentials of different emerging markets.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal for Economic Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): (2013)
    Issue (Month): 4 (December)
    Pages: 218-231

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    Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2013:i:4:p:218-231

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    Related research

    Keywords: market potential; emerging market; cluster analysis; Markov chain;

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    1. Oded Netzer & James M. Lattin & V. Srinivasan, 2008. "A Hidden Markov Model of Customer Relationship Dynamics," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(2), pages 185-204, 03-04.
    2. Masahiro Fukuhara & Yasufumi Saruwatari, 2007. "A Model Forecasting Risk for Emerging Market Currencies," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 325-340, December.
    3. Piyush Tiwari & Hidekazu Itoh & Masayuki Doi, 2003. "Shippers' Port and Carrier Selection Behaviour in China: A Discrete Choice Analysis," Maritime Economics and Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 5(1), pages 23-39, March.
    4. Alan M Rugman & Alain Verbeke, 1992. "A Note on the Transnational Solution and the Transaction Cost Theory of Multinational Strategic Management," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(4), pages 761-771, December.
    5. Wenyu Dou & Hairong Li & Nan Zhou & Chenting Su, 2010. "Exploring relationship satisfaction between global professional service firms and local clients in emerging markets," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(7), pages 1198-1217, September.
    6. Peter J Buckley & L Jeremy Clegg & Adam R Cross & Xin Liu & Hinrich Voss & Ping Zheng, 2007. "The determinants of Chinese outward foreign direct investment," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(4), pages 499-518, July.
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