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The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy* -2005 Version-Yearly Forecast Scenario for “Increase in foreign capital inflows”

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Author Info

  • Pauna, Bianca

    (National Institute of Economic Research, Romanian Academy)

  • Ghizdeanu, Ion

    (National Commission for Prognosis)

  • Scutaru, Cornelia

    ()
    (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

  • Fomin, Petre

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

  • Saman, Corina

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

Abstract

In this article we present only the economic forecast of the variable of interest. For a description of the model, see RJEF, No. 1/2007 of [4]. The macromodel estimates the short and medium-term economic implications for internal policies and changes in the international context. This new version of the Romanian macromodel incorporates the experience accumulated through the utilisation of its previous forms - either experimental (tested during 1991-1995) or operational (developed during 1996-2003). At the same time, it introduces some methodological and information improvements. The most significant of them is the structural decomposition of the economy, associated with input-output techniques. Due to the relatively advanced stage of the transitional processes in Romania, the behavioural functions were accommodated - as much as possible - to the standard relationships. Unlike the versions that used the statistical series beginning in 1980, the present one is based exclusively on information concerning the period 1989-2004. Therefore, we have considered more adequately to name this variant the macromodel of the Romanian market (not transition, as before) economy.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal for Economic Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 5 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 129-131

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Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:5:y:2008:i:2:p:129-131

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Keywords: model; input-output analysis; econometric relationships; simulations;

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