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Macroeconomic Vulnerability and Investment Risks in the Middle East and North Africa Region

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Abstract

In this paper we assess a country’s investment risk by studying its vulnerability to shocks in macroeconomic variables including GDP growth, infl ation, and unemployment. Based on the criteria of quick stabilization in the impulse responses of the macro variables after a one standard deviation shock, we rank a sample of ten MENA countries as follows: Algeria (least risky), Syria, Malta, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Oman, Jordan, United Arab Emirates and Bahrain (most risky). We conclude that a country’s economic policy appears to be more important than its oil reserves in stabilizing its economy and attracting FDI in the MENA region.

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  • Ghosh, Baidyanath N. & Li, Eric A.L., 2009. "Macroeconomic Vulnerability and Investment Risks in the Middle East and North Africa Region," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 62(1), pages 1-39.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0012
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    1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2008. "International Risk Sharing and the Transmission of Productivity Shocks," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(2), pages 443-473.
    2. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M, 1995. "Output Dynamics in Real-Business-Cycle Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 492-511, June.
    3. Backus, David K. & Smith, Gregor W., 1993. "Consumption and real exchange rates in dynamic economies with non-traded goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3-4), pages 297-316, November.
    4. Khalid Sekkat & Marie-Ange Veganzones, 2005. "Trade and foreign exchange liberalization, investment climate and FDI in the MENA," DULBEA Working Papers 05-06.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. Aktham I. Maghyereh & Haitham A. Al-Zoubi, 2006. "Value-at-risk under extreme values: the relative performance in MENA emerging stock markets," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 2(2), pages 154-172, July.
    6. Richard Dennis & Jose A. Lopez, 2004. "Policy applications of a global macroeconomic model," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jun11.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chopra, Parvesh K., 2015. "Country Risk: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Northern African Economies - Il rischio paese: un’analisi teorica e empirica con particolare riferimento ai paesi del Nord ," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 68(1), pages 81-137.
    2. Chopra, Parvesh K. & Kanji, Gopal K., 2010. "On Measuring Country Risk: A new System Modelling Approach - La misura del rischio paese: un nuovo approccio system modelling," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 63(4), pages 479-515.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Vulnerability; Investment Risk; Impulse Response; Macroeconomic Shock;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

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