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Macroeconomic Vulnerability and Investment Risks in the Middle East and North Africa Region

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  • Ghosh, Baidyanath N.

    ()
    (Eastern Mediterranean University)

  • Li, Eric A.L.

    ()
    (Eastern Mediterranean University)

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    Abstract

    In this paper we assess a country’s investment risk by studying its vulnerability to shocks in macroeconomic variables including GDP growth, infl ation, and unemployment. Based on the criteria of quick stabilization in the impulse responses of the macro variables after a one standard deviation shock, we rank a sample of ten MENA countries as follows: Algeria (least risky), Syria, Malta, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Oman, Jordan, United Arab Emirates and Bahrain (most risky). We conclude that a country’s economic policy appears to be more important than its oil reserves in stabilizing its economy and attracting FDI in the MENA region.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Camera di Commercio di Genova in its journal Economia Internazionale / International Economics.

    Volume (Year): 62 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 1-39

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    Handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0012

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    Related research

    Keywords: Vulnerability; Investment Risk; Impulse Response; Macroeconomic Shock;

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    1. Giancarlo CORSETTI & Luca DEDOLA & Sylvain LEDUC, 2003. "International Risk-Sharing and the Transmission of Productivity Shocks," Economics Working Papers ECO2003/22, European University Institute.
    2. Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1993. "Output dynamics in real business cycle models," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 93-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Richard Dennis & Jose A. Lopez, 2004. "Policy applications of a global macroeconomic model," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jun11.
    4. Backus, David K. & Smith, Gregor W., 1993. "Consumption and real exchange rates in dynamic economies with non-traded goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3-4), pages 297-316, November.
    5. Khalid Sekkat & Marie-Ange Veganzones, 2005. "Trade and foreign exchange liberalization, investment climate and FDI in the MENA," DULBEA Working Papers 05-06.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    6. Aktham I. Maghyereh & Haitham A. Al-Zoubi, 2006. "Value-at-risk under extreme values: the relative performance in MENA emerging stock markets," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 2(2), pages 154-172, July.
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