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Value-at-risk under extreme values: the relative performance in MENA emerging stock markets

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Author Info

  • Aktham I. Maghyereh
  • Haitham A. Al-Zoubi

Abstract

Purpose – The paper aims to investigate the relative performance of the most popular value-at-risk (VaR) estimates with an emphasis on the extreme value theory (EVT) methodology for seven Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. Design/methodology/approach – The paper calculates tails distributions of return series by EVT. This allows computing VaR and comparing the results with Variance-Covariance method, Historical simulation, and ARCH-type process with normal distribution, Student-t distribution and skewed Student-t distribution. The paper assesses the performance of the models, which are used in VaR estimations, based on their empirical failure rates. Findings – The empirical results demonstrate that the return distributions of the MENA markets are characterized by fat tails which implies that VaR measures relies on the normal distribution will underestimate VaR. The results suggest that the extreme value approach, by modeling the tails of the return distributions, are more relevant to measure VaR in most of the MENA. Research limitations/implications – The results show that the use of conventional methodologies such as the normal distribution model to estimate the financial market risk in MENA countries may lead to faulty estimation of risk in the world of volatile markets. Originality/value – The paper tried to fill the gap in the literature and perform an evaluation of the relative performance of the most popular VaR estimates with an emphasis on the EVT methodology in seven MENA emerging stock markets. A comparison of the performance between EVT and other VaR techniques should support the decision whether more or less sophisticated methods are appropriate in order to assess stock market risks in the MENA countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal International Journal of Managerial Finance.

Volume (Year): 2 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (July)
Pages: 154-172

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Handle: RePEc:eme:ijmfpp:v:2:y:2006:i:2:p:154-172

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Related research

Keywords: Financial instruments; Financial risk; Middle East; North Africa; Stock markets;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Chopra, Parvesh K. & Kanji, Gopal K., 2010. "On Measuring Country Risk: A new System Modelling Approach - La misura del rischio paese: un nuovo approccio system modelling," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 63(4), pages 479-515.
  2. Sasa Zikovic & Randall Filer, 2012. "Ranking of VaR and ES Models: Performance in Developed and Emerging Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 3980, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Ghosh, Baidyanath N. & Li, Eric A.L., 2009. "Macroeconomic Vulnerability and Investment Risks in the Middle East and North Africa Region," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 62(1), pages 1-39.
  4. Assaf, A., 2009. "Extreme observations and risk assessment in the equity markets of MENA region: Tail measures and Value-at-Risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 109-116, June.
  5. Christos Floros, 2011. "Dynamic relationships between Middle East stock markets," International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(3), pages 227-236, August.
  6. Dimitrakopoulos, Dimitris N. & Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Spyrou, Spyros I., 2010. "Value at risk models for volatile emerging markets equity portfolios," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 515-526, November.
  7. Edib Smolo & M. Kabir Hassan, 2011. "The potentials of musharakah mutanaqisah for Islamic housing finance," International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(3), pages 237-258, August.

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