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Forecasting daily spot prices in the Russian electricity market with the ARFIMA model

Author

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  • Balagula, Yuri

    (Institute for Regional Economic Studies RAS, St.-Petersburg, Russian Federation)

Abstract

The long memory phenomenon in time series of daily spot prices in the Russian electricity market is investigated. The forecasting performance of the ARFIMA model is assessed by cross-validation. The empirical results confirmed the presence of long memory in electricity prices and the best prediction accuracy of the ARFIMA model.

Suggested Citation

  • Balagula, Yuri, 2020. "Forecasting daily spot prices in the Russian electricity market with the ARFIMA model," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 57, pages 89-101.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0389
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Haldrup, Niels & Nielsen, Morten Orregaard, 2006. "A regime switching long memory model for electricity prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 349-376.
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    4. Gianfreda, Angelica & Grossi, Luigi, 2012. "Forecasting Italian electricity zonal prices with exogenous variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2228-2239.
    5. Koopman, Siem Jan & Ooms, Marius & Carnero, M. Angeles, 2007. "Periodic Seasonal Reg-ARFIMAGARCH Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 16-27, March.
    6. Yuri Balagula, 2016. "Fractal Characterization of Long Memory in Electricity Prices," EUSP Department of Economics Working Paper Series 2016/03, European University at St. Petersburg, Department of Economics.
    7. Haldrup Niels & Nielsen Morten Ø., 2006. "Directional Congestion and Regime Switching in a Long Memory Model for Electricity Prices," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-24, September.
    8. C. W. J. Granger & Roselyne Joyeux, 1980. "An Introduction To Long‐Memory Time Series Models And Fractional Differencing," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Garafutdinov, Robert, 2021. "Influence of some ARFIMA model parameters on the accuracy of financial time series forecasting," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 62, pages 85-100.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARFIMA; time series; long memory; electricity market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities

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