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Le syndrome néerlandais : relations intersectorielles et vulnérabilité des branches exposées

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  • Nowak, Jean-Jacques

    (Centre d’études du développement, Université de Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne)

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    Abstract

    Many empirical observations showed that a boom in a traded sector does not necessarily damage all the other traded sectors of the economy, which is in contradiction with the predictions of the former models of the Dutch disease. Some sectors may even benefit from the boom and their production may expand. This phenomenon has so far been explained by the degree of intersectoral capital mobility or the imperfect substituability between domestic and foreign traded goods. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate that a third factor can explain the expansion of some traded sectors in a booming economy. This factor consists in the intensity and the nature of the interindustry flows, and more precisely in the presence of non traded intermediate goods. In a model including these features, atypical evolutions are permitted for the productions and for the factor incomes. Some empirical elements about Nigeria close this paper. L’observation a montré que, contrairement à ce qu’affirmaient les premiers modèles du syndrome néerlandais, un boom dans un secteur exposé à la concurrence internationale ne nuisait pas nécessairement à l’ensemble de tous les autres secteurs exposés de l’économie; certains d’entre eux pouvaient même en bénéficier et connaître une phase d’expansion. Deux facteurs explicatifs ont été jusqu’ici proposés : le degré de mobilité du capital et l’imparfaite substituabilité des biens nationaux aux biens étrangers. L’objet de cet article est de montrer qu’un troisième facteur est capable de rendre compte des tendances expansionnistes manifestées par certaines branches exposées : c’est la présence dans l’économie de biens intermédiaires abrités. Dans ce cadre enrichi du côté de l’offre, des évolutions atypiques par rapport aux résultats traditionnels sont envisageables tant pour les productions que pour les revenus factoriels. On présente pour finir quelques éléments relatifs au cas du Nigeria.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Société Canadienne de Science Economique in its journal L'Actualité économique.

    Volume (Year): 71 (1995)
    Issue (Month): 3 (septembre)
    Pages: 308-333

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    Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:71:y:1995:i:3:p:308-333

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    1. Cuddington, John, 1988. "Fiscal policy in commodity-exporting LDCs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 33, The World Bank.
    2. Ray, Alok, 1973. "Non-traded inputs and effective protection: A general equilibrium analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 245-257, August.
    3. Ray, Alok, 1975. "Traded and Nontraded Intermediate Inputs and Some Aspects of the Pure Theory of International Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 331-40, May.
    4. Pinto, Brian, 1987. "Nigeria during and after the Oil Boom: A Policy Comparison with Indonesia," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 1(3), pages 419-45, May.
    5. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-48, December.
    6. Maddock, Rodney & McLean, Ian, 1984. "Supply-Side Shocks: The Case of Australian Gold," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(04), pages 1047-1067, December.
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