Global financial crisis and VaR performance in emerging markets: A case of EU candidate states - Turkey and Croatia
AbstractWe investigate the relative performance of a wide array of Value at Risk (VaR) models with the daily returns of Turkish (XU100) and Croatian (CROBEX) stock index prior to and during the ongoing financial crisis. In addition to widely used VaR models, we also study the behaviour of conditional and unconditional extreme value theory (EVT) and hybrid historical simulation (HHS) models to generate 95, 99 and 99.5% confidence level estimates. Results indicate that during the crisis period all tested VaR model except EVT and HHS models seriously underpredict the true level of risk, with EVT models doing so at a higher cost of capital com- pared to HHS model.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics in its journal Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics.
Volume (Year): 27 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
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Web page: https://www.efri.uniri.hr/en/proceedings
More information through EDIRC
financial crisis; emerging markets; Value at Risk; extreme value theory; hybrid historical simulation;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ozun, Alper & Cifter, Atilla & Yilmazer, Sait, 2007. "Filtered Extreme Value Theory for Value-At-Risk Estimation," MPRA Paper 3302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Abad, Pilar & Benito, Sonia, 2013. "A detailed comparison of value at risk estimates," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 258-276.
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