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On fitting the Pareto–Levy distribution to stock market index data: Selecting a suitable cutoff value

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  • Coronel-Brizio, H.F.
  • Hernández-Montoya, A.R.

Abstract

The so-called Pareto–Levy or power-law distribution has been successfully used as a model to describe probabilities associated to extreme variations of stock markets indexes worldwide. The selection of the threshold parameter from empirical data and consequently, the determination of the exponent of the distribution, is often done using a simple graphical method based on a log–log scale, where a power-law probability plot shows a straight line with slope equal to the exponent of the power-law distribution. This procedure can be considered subjective, particularly with regard to the choice of the threshold or cutoff parameter. In this work, a more objective procedure based on a statistical measure of discrepancy between the empirical and the Pareto–Levy distribution is presented. The technique is illustrated for data sets from the New York Stock Exchange (DJIA) and the Mexican Stock Market (IPC).

Suggested Citation

  • Coronel-Brizio, H.F. & Hernández-Montoya, A.R., 2005. "On fitting the Pareto–Levy distribution to stock market index data: Selecting a suitable cutoff value," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 354(C), pages 437-449.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:354:y:2005:i:c:p:437-449
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2005.03.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. M. Goldstein & S. Morris & G. Yen, 2004. "Problems with fitting to the power-law distribution," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 41(2), pages 255-258, September.
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    3. Fujimoto, Shouji & Ishikawa, Atushi & Mizuno, Takayuki & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2011. "A new method for measuring tail exponents of firm size distributions," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 5, pages 1-20.
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    6. C. M. Rodr'iguez-Mart'inez & H. F. Coronel-Brizio & A. R. Hern'andez-Montoya, 2019. "A multi-scale symmetry analysis of uninterrupted trends returns of daily financial indices," Papers 1908.11204, arXiv.org.
    7. Marcin Wk{a}torek & Jaros{l}aw Kwapie'n & Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z, 2021. "Financial Return Distributions: Past, Present, and COVID-19," Papers 2107.06659, arXiv.org.
    8. Sasa Zikovic, 2011. "Measuring risk of crude oil at extreme quantiles," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 29(1), pages 9-31.
    9. Ko, Bonggyun & Kim, Kyungwon, 2017. "Simulation of sovereign CDS market based on interaction between market participant," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 479(C), pages 324-340.
    10. Rodríguez-Martínez, C.M. & Coronel-Brizio, H.F. & Hernández-Montoya, A.R., 2021. "A multi-scale symmetry analysis of uninterrupted trends returns in daily financial indices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 574(C).
    11. Yuanrong Wang & Tomaso Aste, 2021. "Dynamic Portfolio Optimization with Inverse Covariance Clustering," Papers 2112.15499, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    12. Safari, Muhammad Aslam Mohd & Masseran, Nurulkamal & Ibrahim, Kamarulzaman, 2018. "Optimal threshold for Pareto tail modelling in the presence of outliers," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 169-180.
    13. Sasa Zikovic & Bora Aktan, 2009. "Global financial crisis and VaR performance in emerging markets: A case of EU candidate states - Turkey and Croatia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 27(1), pages 149-170.
    14. Pan, Raj Kumar & Sinha, Sitabhra, 2008. "Inverse-cubic law of index fluctuation distribution in Indian markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(8), pages 2055-2065.
    15. Federico Botta & Helen Susannah Moat & H Eugene Stanley & Tobias Preis, 2015. "Quantifying Stock Return Distributions in Financial Markets," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(9), pages 1-10, September.
    16. Xiufeng Yan, 2021. "Autoregressive conditional duration modelling of high frequency data," Papers 2111.02300, arXiv.org.
    17. Sio Chong U & Jacky So & Deng Ding & Lihong Liu, 2016. "An efficient Fourier expansion method for the calculation of value-at-risk: Contributions of extra-ordinary risks," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(01), pages 1-27, March.
    18. Marco Bee & Massimo Riccaboni & Stefano Schiavo, 2011. "Pareto versus lognormal: a maximum entropy test," Department of Economics Working Papers 1102, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    19. Gu, Gao-Feng & Xiong, Xiong & Zhang, Yong-Jie & Chen, Wei & Zhang, Wei & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2016. "Stylized facts of price gaps in limit order books," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 48-58.
    20. Coronel-Brizio, H.F. & Hernández-Montoya, A.R., 2010. "The Anderson–Darling test of fit for the power-law distribution from left-censored samples," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(17), pages 3508-3515.
    21. Xiufeng Yan, 2021. "Multiplicative Component GARCH Model of Intraday Volatility," Papers 2111.02376, arXiv.org.
    22. Gao-Feng Gu & Xiong Xiong & Yong-Jie Zhang & Wei Chen & Wei Zhang & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2014. "Stylized facts of price gaps in limit order books: Evidence from Chinese stocks," Papers 1405.1247, arXiv.org.

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