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External Shocks and Debt Accumulation in a Small Open Economy

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  • Abdelhak S. Senhadji

    (International Monetary Fund)

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    Abstract

    This paper analyzes the borrowing behavior of a small open economy of a Less Developed Country (LDC) that relies heavily on imports for its capital formation and faces an upward sloping supply function of foreign loans, in an environment where decision makers face uncertainty about the longevity of external shocks. First, a dynamic general equilibrium model is developed which replicates fairly well the business cycle properties of the LDC data. Second, it is shown that uncertainty concerning the longevity of shocks (a relevant type of uncertainty, especially for LDCs) generates forecast errors that are autocorrelated in a way that is similar to Bayesian learning in the "peso problem." This autocorrelated forecast errors can generate substantial debt accumulation. Third, it is shown that the assumption of an upward sloping supply function of foreign loans, which is a more realistic assumption for LDCs than the usual perfectly elastic one, offers an alternative to the Uzawa-type utility function for the analysis of asset accumulation in the small open economy framework. (Copyright: Elsevier)

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1094-2025(02)00015-7
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics in its journal Review of Economic Dynamics.

    Volume (Year): 6 (2003)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 207-239

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    Handle: RePEc:red:issued:v:6:y:2003:i:1:p:207-239

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    Related research

    Keywords: Debt accumulation; Stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model; External shocks; Incomplete information; Less Developed Economies;

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    References

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    1. Murphy, Robert G., 1991. "Macroeconomic adjustment under alternative lending arrangements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 103-127.
    2. Correia, Maria Isabel Horta & Neves, Joao C & Rebelo, Sérgio, 1994. "Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 996, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Deaton, A., 1989. "Saving And Liquidity Constraints," Papers 153, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
    4. Cardia, Emanuela, 1991. "The dynamics of a small open economy in response to monetary, fiscal, and productivity shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 411-434, December.
    5. Gary D. Hansen & Edward C. Prescott, 1992. "Recursive methods for computing equilibria of business cycle models," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 36, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    6. Christiano, Lawrence J., 1988. "Why does inventory investment fluctuate so much?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 247-280.
    7. Maurice Obstfeld, 1981. "Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?," NBER Working Papers 0686, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Lewis, Karen K, 1989. "Changing Beliefs and Systematic Rational Forecast Errors with Evidence from Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 621-36, September.
    9. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    10. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
    11. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-37, February.
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    Cited by:
    1. Kuralbayeva, Karlygash & Vines, David, 2006. "Terms of Trade Shocks in an Intertemporal Model: Should We Worry about the Dutch Disease or Excessive Borrowing?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5857, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Chung, Keunsuk & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2010. "Foreign debt supply in an imperfect international capital market: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 201-223, March.
    3. Ester Faia, 2005. "Financial Differences and Business Cycle Co-Movements in A Currency Area," Working Papers 97, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    4. Huseyin Murat Ozbilgin, 2009. "Financial Market Participation and the Developing Country Business Cycle," Working Papers 0904, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    5. Wilman Gómez & Carlos Esteban Posada, . "Un "Choque" del Activo Externo Neto y el Ciclo Económico Colombiano," Borradores de Economia 285, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. James M. Nason and John H. Rogers, 2001. "The Present Value Model of the Current Account Has Been Rejected: Round Up the Usual Subjects," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 102, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. Muhanji, Stella & Ojah, Kalu, 2011. "External shocks and persistence of external debt in open vulnerable economies: The case of Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1615-1628, July.
    8. Amir Kia, 2004. "Deficits, Debt Financing, Monetary Policy and Inflation in Developing Countries: Internal or External Factors?," Carleton Economic Papers 04-15, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    9. Olivier Cardi, 2007. "The Zero-root Property: Permanent vs Temporary Terms-of-trade Shocks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 782-802, 09.
    10. Fabio Kanczuk, 2004. "Real Interest Rates and Brazilian Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(2), pages 436-455, April.
    11. CARDI, Oliver & BERTINELLI, Luisito, 2004. "A formal model of krugman’s intuition on the J-curve," CORE Discussion Papers 2004043, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    12. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:97:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Carlos Esteban Posada Posada & Wilman Gómez, 2004. "Un choque del activo externo neto y el ciclo económico Colombiano 1994-2001," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003674, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    14. Thomas A. Lubik, 2007. "Non-stationarity and instability in small open-economy models even when they are "closed"," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 393-412.
    15. Ghironi, Fabio, 2008. "The role of net foreign assets in a New Keynesian small open economy model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1780-1811, June.
    16. Kia, Amir, 2006. "Deficits, debt financing, monetary policy and inflation in developing countries: Internal or external factors?: Evidence from Iran," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 879-903, November.
    17. Ester Faia & Alessia Campolmi, 2005. "Inflation Differentials and Different Labor Market Institutions in the EMU," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 80, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    18. Campolmi, Alessia & Faia, Ester, 2006. "Cyclical inflation divergence and different labor market institutions in the EMU," Working Paper Series 0619, European Central Bank.
    19. Amir Kia, 2006. "Deficits, Debt Financing, Monetary Policy and Inflation in Developing Countries: Internal or External Factors? Evidence from Iran," Carleton Economic Papers 06-03, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2006.

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