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China’s Demographic Outlook

Author

Listed:
  • Jiamin Lim

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Arianna Cowling

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

The significant increase in the working-age portion of China’s population over recent decades was an important contributor to China’s rapid economic growth. In coming decades, however, China’s working-age population is expected to contract and the dependency ratio, which is the ratio of non-working-age to working-age population, is expected to increase substantially. Other things being equal, such demographic changes will have fiscal implications and tend to reduce the economy’s potential growth rate. Scenarios presented in this article suggest that it appears inevitable that China’s dependency ratio will rise and the working-age population will not increase from current levels. As such, the boost to economic growth provided by the demographic dividend of the past decades is not likely to be repeated.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiamin Lim & Arianna Cowling, 2016. "China’s Demographic Outlook," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 35-42, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbabul:jun2016-05
    as

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    File URL: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2016/jun/pdf/bu-0616-5.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. World Bank & the People’s Republic of China Development Research Center of the State Council, 2014. "Urban China : Toward Efficient, Inclusive, and Sustainable Urbanization," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 18865, December.
    2. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2016. "Contractions in Chinese Fertility and Savings: Long-run Domestic and Global Implications," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Iris Day & John Simon (ed.),Structural Change in China: Implications for Australia and the World, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Heikki Oksanen, 2010. "The Chinese pension system - First results on assessing the reform options," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 412, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    4. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2018. "Fertility and savings contractions in China: Long‐run global implications," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(11), pages 3194-3220, November.
    5. World Bank, 2016. "Live Long and Prosper," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 23133, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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