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Endogenous growth in Mexico: The role of US economic activity and balance of payments transfers

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  • Alejandro Rodriguez Arana

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    (Universidad Iberoamericana)

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    Abstract

    Este articulo realiza un ejercicio de calibracion de un modelo del tipo AK para el caso de Mexico. El financiamiento a la inversion se modela considerando tanto la razon de ahorro domestico al PIB como los ingresos netos por servicios factoriales y los flujos de capital de la balanza de pagos. De acuerdo con el modelo planteado, los parametros actuales que determinan el crecimiento economico del pais son compatibles con una tasa de crecimiento de largo plazo cercana a 3.6%. En estas circunstancias, la razon entre el PIB de Mexico y el de Estados Unidos creceria moderadamente en el tiempo. El crecimiento de largo plazo de Mexico depende fuertemente de las transferencias netas de la balanza de pagos, las cuales se conforman hoy en dia principalmente por remesas familiares y por el crecimiento economico de Estados Unidos. Estas variables estan fuera de control para nuestro pais. La situacion muestra claramente que el ahorro domestico es muy limitado. El articulo concluye que para asegurar un crecimiento positivo que mejore los niveles de vida y el tamano relativo de Mexico con respecto a Estados Unidos, es necesario implementar politicas que incrementen el ahorro domestico y la productividad.

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    File URL: http://econoquantum.cucea.udg.mx/volumen_3_num_2/vol_3_no_2_art_1.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia. in its journal EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Negocios.

    Volume (Year): 3 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 2 (Enero-Junio)
    Pages: 7-32

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    Handle: RePEc:qua:journl:v:3:y:2007:i:2:p:7-32

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    Related research

    Keywords: Growth; remittances; savings.;

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    1. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 1979. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 32(128), pages 45-53.
    2. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
    3. Khaled Hussein & A. P. Thirlwall, 2000. "The AK Model of "New" Growth Theory Is the Harrod-Domar Growth Equation: Investment and Growth Revisited," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 22(3), pages 427-435, April.
    4. Itay Goldstein & Assaf Razin, 2005. "Foreign Direct Investment vs. Foreiegn Portfolio Investment," NBER Working Papers 11047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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