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L'output gap tra scienza e superstizione. (The output gap between science and superstition)

Author

Listed:
  • Salvatore D'Acunto

    (Universita' della Campania "L. Vanvitelli")

  • Domenico Suppa

    (Universita' della Campania "L. Vanvitelli")

Abstract

In questo lavoro si analizzano i criteri adottati dalla Commissione Europea per valutare il rispetto della "disciplina fiscale" da parte dei paesi membri dell'UE e piu' in particolare il ruolo svolto dall'output gap. Tale indicatore, a causa dell'inerzia e dell'alea insite nella sua determinazione, non e' in grado di indirizzare correttamente le politiche di stabilizzazione del ciclo economico. Dalla letteratura empirica occasionata dalla Grande Recessione emerge che le tecniche di stima impiegate incontrano serie difficolta' nel cogliere il NAIRU durante le oscillazioni cicliche, soprattutto quando queste sono di intensita' e durata considerevoli. Ne deriva una sistematica tendenza ad interpretare l'evoluzione delle variabili reali come esito di modificazioni della capacita' produttiva, e quindi una sistematica distorsione delle valutazioni della Commissione Europea circa l'adeguatezza delle politiche di bilancio dei paesi membri alla congiuntura. Sulla base di queste valutazioni, sono state imposte significative restrizioni fiscali, talvolta con pesanti conseguenze su capacita' produttiva e dinamica della produttivita', e quindi sul sentiero di crescita. We examine the criteria adopted by the European Commission for assessing EU member states' compliance with the “fiscal discipline” principles, with a focus on the role played by the output gap. This indicator, due to inertia and uncertainty inherent in its determination, is unable to correctly inform stabilization policies. The empirical literature reveals that the estimation techniques currently in use face serious difficulties in grasping the NAIRU during cyclical fluctuations, especially when these are of considerable strength and duration. There is a systematic tendency to interpret the evolution of real variables as the result of changes in productive capacity, with a distortion in the European Commission's assessments of the adequacy of member states' fiscal policies to economic conditions. Significant fiscal retrenchment was imposed, sometimes causing heavy consequences on productive capacity and productivity dynamics, and therefore on growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Salvatore D'Acunto & Domenico Suppa, 2021. "L'output gap tra scienza e superstizione. (The output gap between science and superstition)," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 74(294), pages 113-135.
    • Handle: RePEc:psl:moneta:2021:22
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Output gap; Austerity; NAIRU; Unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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