Crisis Resistance Versus Monetary Regime: A Polish–Slovak Counterfactual Exercise
AbstractIn the public debate, it is argued that Poland avoided a massive drop in output during the 2008/2009 economic crisis in part thanks to substantial nominal zloty’s depreciation against the euro. The Polish case is often contrasted with Slovakia that adopted the euro in January 2009 and, since the Ecofin Council decision in summer 2008, exhibited virtually no nominal exchange rate volatility while facing deep losses in output. In this paper we attempt to validate this contrast by reversing the roles, i.e. checking if Poland really would have faced the same drop – and Slovakia would have remained relatively resilient – if it had been Poland, not Slovakia, that adopted the euro at that point. Our counterfactual simulations based on a New Keynesian DSGE model indicate that, indeed, the Polish tradable output could have been 10-15 percent lower than actually observed in 2009, while the Slovak one – approximately 20 percent higher. This asymmetry results mainly from structural differences between the two economies, such as size, openness, share of nontradable sector and foreign trade elasticities. The difference of this size would have been short-lived (3-4 quarters), and the difference of the nontradable output would have been of much lower magnitude.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by CEJEME in its journal Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics.
Volume (Year): 4 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://cejeme.org/
euro adoption; Poland; Slovakia; DSGE; counterfactual simulations;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
- E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000.
"Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier,
Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
- Ryo Kato & Takayuki Tsuruga, 2002. "Matlab code for a sticky wage/price model," QM&RBC Codes, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles 114, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson & Andrew T. Levin, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 640, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Andrew Levin & Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Staggered Wage and Price Contracts," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1151, Society for Computational Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to solve Erceg-Henderson-Levin model," Statistical Software Components RTZ00051, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002.
"An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area,"
Working Paper Research, National Bank of Belgium
35, National Bank of Belgium.
- Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999.
"The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University 99-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective," Economics Working Papers 356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999.
- V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002.
"Can sticky price models generate volatile and persistent real exchange rates?,"
Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
277, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- V. V Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 533-563.
- Chari, V V & Kehoe, Patrick J & McGrattan, Ellen R, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(3), pages 533-63, July.
- V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1998. "Can sticky price models generate volatile and persistent real exchange rates?," Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 223, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2000. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 7869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kolasa, Marcin, 2009.
"Structural heterogeneity or asymmetric shocks? Poland and the euro area through the lens of a two-country DSGE model,"
Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1245-1269, November.
- Kolasa, Marcin, 2008. "Structural heterogeneity or asymmetric shocks? Poland and the euro area through the lens of a two-country DSGE model," MPRA Paper 8750, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Marcin Kolasa, 2008. "Structural heterogeneity or asymmetric shocks? Poland and the euro area through the lens of a two-country DSGE model," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 49, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
- Carl E. Walsh, 2010. "Monetary Theory and Policy, Third Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 3, volume 1, number 0262013770, December.
- Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
- Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Krzysztof Makarski & Grzegorz Wesolowski, 2013.
"Would it have paid to be in the eurozone?,"
70, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
- Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2000. "Habit Formation in Consumption and Its Implications for Monetary-Policy Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 367-390, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Krzysztof Osiewalski).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.