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L'« atterrissage en douceur » de l'économie américaine : vers un nouveau mode de conduite de la politique monétaire ?

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  • Anton Brender
  • Florence Pisani
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    Abstract

    [eng] The « Soft Landing » of the Americain Economy : Toward a New Regulation Scheme of the Monetary Policy Anton Brender, Florence Pisani Looking at US monetary policy from 1950 onwards shows it has seldom been pre-emptive. Without any visible inflationary pressures the Fed, howerer, raised its rates in February 1994 — an rather unusual move. The sought of pre- emptive action is justified by lags inherent in monetary policy : inflation being affected by growth with a lag and growth reacting to monetary policy with another lag, the latter has to be conducted in a pre-emptive way. This « new » approach implies a gradual adjustment of policy to the actual state of the economy. Such was the case in 1994 and at the begignning of 1995 : despite incorrect initial forecasts, the Fed finally managed to slow the US economy. It did so with a succession of rate increases that pragmatically took into account he very sharp rise financial markets imposed to long-term rates. [fre] Un examen de la politique monétaire américaine depuis l'après-guerre montre que celle-ci est loin d'avoir toujours été préventive. L'action entreprise en 1994 a été plutôt originale : sans qu'aucune tension sur les prix ne soit encore perceptible en février 1994, la Réserve fédérale a relevé ses taux. Une telle action préventive se justifie par les délais d'action de la politique monétaire : l'inflation étant sensible avec retard à l'activité, qui elle-même réagit avec retard à la politique monétaire, cette dernière se doit d'être conduite en anticipation. Ce « nouveau » mode de conduite de la politique monétaire suppose donc que la Réserve fédérale ajuste en permanence et graduellement son action pour l'adapter à la marche effective de l'économie. Tel a été le cas tout au long de l'année 1994 et au début de l'année 1995 : alors que ses prévisions ont été, dans une large mesure erronées, la Réserve fédérale a fait preuve de pragmatisme et a su composer avec les évolutions inattendues tant des marchés financiers — et en particulier des anticipations de taux — que de l'économie réelle, en ajustant le rythme et l'intensité de ses mouvements de taux.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3406/ofce.1995.1409
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    File URL: http://www.persee.fr/articleAsPDF/ofce_0751-6614_1995_num_55_1_1409/ofce_0751-6614_1995_num_55_1_1409.pdf?mode=light
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

    Volume (Year): 55 (1995)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 171-209

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1995_num_55_1_1409

    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1995.1409
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    Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ofce

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