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La France en 1986 : bilan et perspectives macro-économiques

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  • Charles Wyplosz

Abstract

[eng] France in 1986 : macroeconomic assessment and perspectives. . The French economy is back on a growth trend with moderate inflation. While this is good news, current widespread optimism is not warranted for three reasons : forecasted growth is slow, unemployment is expected to remain high, and investment does not seem to recover. The general reaction to these difficulties is to relie on supply-side measures such as deregulation of exchange and financial markets, the end of price controls, a reduction of state interventions, privatization, etc... While helpful, these measures may well fall short of what is needed. This article studies the reasons for lasting high unemployment and suggests a programme to cope with it, based on labor tax reductions. [fre] La France en 1986 : bilan et perspectives macro-économiques. . Cet article propose d'analyser l'évolution du chômage à partir du seuil de chômage non inflationniste (SCNI), c'est-à-dire du taux en dessous duquel l'inflation augmente. Les résultats font apparaître une montée constante de ce seuil et permettent de l'interpréter par la montée des coûts du travail. Cette hausse des coûts est elle-même expliquée, d'une part, par la hausse des salaires nets, probablement basée sur une attente trop optimiste en ce qui concerne les gains de productivité, et, d'autre part, par l'accroissement des prélèvements obligatoires sur le revenu du travail. C'est ce dernier facteur qui paraît le plus aisé à corriger: l'article se termine par une discussion des mesures susceptibles de réduire le chômage dans les années à venir.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue économique.

Volume (Year): 38 (1987)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 677-702

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Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1987_num_38_3_408994

Note: DOI:10.2307/3501623
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Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/reco

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