Essai sur l'efficacité de la politique monétaire

[eng] The basic problem which the money theory attempts to solve is to know how money can influence the economie situation. Many econometric studies, conducted in the light of experiences made during the last twenty years, have aimed at checking this relationship by looking for the existing correlation between lags introduced in monetary policy and the evolution of the National Product rate of growth. As gener rule these studies lead to the following conclusion monetary policy is inefficient because the time which elapses between the action taken on the volume of money and the induced variations of National Product is too long from about one to two years This nearly unanimous pessimism reaches neo liberal authors who advocate the least interference of monetary power and neo- Keynesian ones who try to investigate into the reasons of these delays of the reactions between money and product As regards monetary policy it seems more advisable to study thoroughly the concept of efficiency than question econometric methods The increase or reduction of the volume of money have indeed determining influence on the turnover of business enterprises and consequently on the decisions of investment now whe ther you are or not Keynesian follower you must admit that investment is still the main element of present and future aggregate demand and an essential determinant of the rate of growth Thus the relationship between money and product is undisputable but it is through the financing of investment that the causes of the more of less lengthy reaction of National Product to political measures can be discovered the study of the structure of the financing of investments must lead to modulate credit restrictive or expansive measures In short the monetary policy still is the main key to master the situation but for that it must not remain too general and empirical its efficiency depends on the relevant application of the means which are at the disposal of governments [fre] Le problème fondamental auquel tente de répondre la théorie monétaire est de savoir dans quelle mesure la monnaie influence la conjoncture économique. Menées à la lumière des expériences pratiquées depuis une vingtaine d'années, de nombreuses études économétriques ont eu pour objet de vérifier cette liaison en recherchant la corrélation qui existe entre les mesures de politique mo­nétaire et l'évolution du taux de croissance du Produit National.. En général, ces études convergent vers la conclusion suivante : la politique monétaire est inefficace car les délais qui s'écoulent entre l'action sur la masse monétaire et les variations induites du Produit National sont trop longs, de l'ordre de un an à deux ans. Ce pessimisme quasi unanime atteint aussi bien les auteurs néo-libéraux partisans de la moindre intervention du pouvoir monétaire que les néo-keynésiens qui cherchent à approfondir les raisons de cette lenteur des réac­tions entre monnaie et produit.. Plutôt que de remettre en cause les méthodes économétriques, il semble pré­férable d'approfondir le concept d'efficacité en ce qui concerne la politique moné­taire. En réalité, l'expansion ou la réduction de la masse monétaire ont une influence déterminante sur le chiffre d'affaires des entreprises et, par voie de conséquence, sur les décisions d'investissement ; or, que l'on soit ou non keynésien, il faut admettre que l'investissement est encore le principal élément de la demande globale actuelle et future et un déterminant essentiel du taux de croissance.. Ainsi, la liaison entre monnaie et produit est irréfutable mais c'est par le biais du financement de l'investissement que l'on peut découvrir les causes de la réaction plus ou moins longue du produit national aux mesures politiques : l'étude de la structure du financement des investissements doit amener à moduler les mesures de restriction ou d'expansion du crédit. Bref, la politique monétaire reste la clef principale d'une maîtrise de la conjoncture mais elle ne doit pas, pour cela, demeurer trop empirique et globale ; son efficacité dépend de l'application ap­propriée des moyens dont disposent les pouvoirs publics. As a general rule, these studies lead to the following conclusion : monetary policy is inefficient because the time which clapses between the action taken on the volume of money and the induced variations of National Product is too long, from about one to two years. This nearly unanimous pessimism reaches neo-liberal authors who advocate the least interference of monetary power and neo-Keynesian ones who try to investigate into the reasons of these delays of the reactions between money and product.. As regards monetary policy, it seems more advisable to study thoroughly the concept of efficiency than question econometric methods. The increase or reduction of the volume of money have indeed a determining influence on the turnover of business enterprises and consequently on the decisions of investment ; now, whe-ther y ou are or not a Keynesian folio wer, you must admit that investment is still the main element of present and future aggregate demand, and an essential determinant of the rate of growth.. Thus, the relationship between money and product is undisputable but it is through the financing of investment that the causes of the more of less lengthy reaction of National Product to political measures can be discovered : the study of the structure of the financing of investments must lead to modulate credit restrictive or expansive measures. In short, the monetary policy still is the main key to master the situation but for that, it must not remain too general and empirical ; its efficiency depends on the relevant application of the means which are at the disposai of governments.