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Évaluations ex ante et ex post d'un programme d'allocations scolaires conditionnées au Mexique

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  • Jérémie Gignoux

Abstract

[fre] Cet article examine la qualité des évaluations ex-ante des effets des programmes d’allocations scolaires sur les activités des enfants dans les pays en développement. Nous utilisons les données d’une expérience sociale d’évaluation du programme mexicain Progresa. Nous comparons les prévisions données par un modèle ex-ante de forme réduite des effets de transferts de revenus sur la scolarisation et le travail des enfants aux impacts estimés ex-post par l’expérience sociale. L’estimation ex-ante des effets du revenu parental repose sur son instrumentation par les biens durables et les caractéristiques des logements des bénéficiaires. Nos résultats montrent que les prévisions ex-ante des impacts du programme sont proches des impacts estimés ex-post. Nous discutons les biais de ces deux méthodes d’évaluation. [eng] This article examines the quality of ex ante assessments of the effects of conditional cash-transfer programs on child time allocation in developing countries. We use data from a social experiment conducted to evaluate the Mexican program Progresa. We compare the results of (1) ex ante simulations obtained through a reduced-form model of the effects of cash transfers on children’s school enrollment and labor participation with (2) ex post impact estimates. The ex ante estimation of the effects of parental income rests on an instrumental-variable strategy that uses housing characteristics and household durables as indicators of parents’ permanent income. Our results show that the effects simulated ex ante are close to the ones measured ex post using the experimental framework. We discuss the potential biases of both evaluation methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Jérémie Gignoux, 2006. "Évaluations ex ante et ex post d'un programme d'allocations scolaires conditionnées au Mexique," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 174(3), pages 59-85.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2006_num_174_3_7953
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2006.7953
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2006.7953
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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