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Vieillissement démographique et immigration : un modèle de comptabilité générationnelle appliqué à la France

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  • Xavier Chojnicki

Abstract

[fre] L’effet du vieillissement de la population sur les finances publiques représente un sujet de préoccupation pour l’ensemble des pays de l’OCDE. Récemment, l’idée a été avancée de recourir à l’immigration afin d’atténuer les effets du vieillissement démographique. Dans cet article, nous utilisons la technique de la comptabilité générationnelle pour étudier l’impact de l’immigration sur la contrainte budgétaire intertemporelle de l’État. Nous montrons que la politique budgétaire n’est pas soutenable à long terme et nécessite une augmentation de l’ensemble des taxes de 11,6 % ou une réduction de l’ensemble des transferts de 13,0 %. La contribution des migrants est relativement neutre et une modification des flux migratoires ne saurait faciliter un retour à l’équilibre. Par contre, la mise en place d’une politique sélective visant à accroître le niveau d’éducation des immigrants peut constituer un instrument complémentaire aux instruments économiques traditionnels dans la perspective du vieillissement démographique. [eng] The impact of population aging on public finances is a matter of concern to all OECD countries. There have been recent suggestions that immigration could dampen the effects of population aging. In this article, we use generational accounting to study the impact of immigration on the central government’s intertemporal fiscal constraint. We show that French fiscal policy is unsustainable in the long term and requires a total 11.6 % increase in taxes or an overall 13 % reduction in transfers. The contribution of migrants is relatively neutral and would not help to restore equilibrium. By contrast, the introduction of a selective policy to raise immigrants’ educational attainment could complement traditional economic instruments in coping with population aging.

Suggested Citation

  • Xavier Chojnicki, 2006. "Vieillissement démographique et immigration : un modèle de comptabilité générationnelle appliqué à la France," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 174(3), pages 39-57.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2006_num_174_3_7952
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2006.7952
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2006.7952
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    1. Robert Haveman, 1994. "Should Generational Accounts Replace Public Budgets and Deficits?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 95-111, Winter.
    2. Carole Bonnet, 2002. "Comptabilité générationnelle appliquée à la France : quelques facteurs d'instabilité des résultats," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 154(3), pages 59-78.
    3. Holger Bonin & Bernd Raffelhüschen & Jan Walliser, 2000. "Can Immigration Alleviate the Demographic Burden?," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 57(1), pages 1-21, September.
    4. Timothy Miller & Ronald Lee, 2000. "Immigration, Social Security, and Broader Fiscal Impacts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 350-354, May.
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    1. Xavier Chojnicki & Lionel Ragot, 2016. "Impacts of Immigration on an Ageing Welfare State: An Applied General Equilibrium Model for France," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 37, pages 258-284, June.
    2. Xavier Chojnicki, 2013. "The Fiscal Impact of Immigration in France: A Generational Accounting Approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(8), pages 1065-1090, August.

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