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Programmation mathématique positive et offre de céréales et d'oléagineux dans l'Union Européenne sous l'agenda 2000

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  • Jean-Pierre Butault
  • Ahmed Barkaoui
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    Abstract

    [fre] Dans cet article, l'impact des projets de réforme de la PAC de 1'" Agenda 2000 " sur l'offre en grandes cultures est simulé, à l'horizon 2005, pour l'Union Européenne. Cette simulation repose sur une modélisation de l'offre, au niveau des régions européennes, par la méthode de " Programmation Mathématique Positive " et sur les données individuelles du RICA communautaire de 1994. Nos projections montrent une progression forte des céréales et une baisse des oléagineux dans la période 1994-2005. Ces résultats ont un effet considérable sur l'équilibre des marchés. [eng] Positive Mathematical Programming and Cereal and Oilseed Supply in the European Union Under Agenda 2000 by Ahmed Barkaoui and Jean-Pierre Butault . In this study, we simulate the effect that Agenda 2000' s CAP reform projects will have on the EU field crop supply by 2005. We apply the Positive Mathematical Programming method at regional level in twelve EU Member States. Simulations are based on the 1994 Community FADN database. Our forecasts show that cereal production will increase sharply and oilseed production will decrease over the period from 1994*to 2005. These results will have a considerable effect on market equilibrium.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.3406/ecop.2000.5985
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

    Volume (Year): 142 (2000)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 13-25

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2000_num_142_1_5985

    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2000.5985
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    Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ecop

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    1. Richard E. Howitt, 1995. "A Calibration Method For Agricultural Economic Production Models," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(2), pages 147-159.
    2. Quirino Paris & Richard E. Howitt, 1998. "An Analysis of Ill-Posed Production Problems Using Maximum Entropy," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 124-138.
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