Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Mimétisme, erreurs d'anticipation de la demande et risque de défaillance des entreprises industrielles en France : un modèle économétrique à correction d'erreur

Contents:

Author Info

  • Régis Blazy

Abstract

[eng] Imitation, Demand Expectation Errors and the Risk of Bankruptcy Among Industrial Firms in France: An . Econometric Error Correction Model . Régis Blazy . Our study links up the main explanatory factors generally put forward by theoretical literature as being behind the involuntary bankruptcy process by focusing on the role played by the demand expectation errors made by firms. The theoretical analysis presented posits a more or less stable convergence mechanism for these expectations. The effect of demand expectation errors on the probability of bankruptcy is econometrically confirmed using INSEE's business surveys of the industrial sector from 1977 to 1994. Other variables describing the legal, demographic and financial circumstances of firms during this period are also analysed. [fre] Mimétisme, erreurs d'anticipation de la demande et risque de défaillance des entreprises industrielles en France : un modèle économétrique à correction d'erreur . Régis Blazy . Notre étude relie entre eux les principaux facteurs explicatifs du processus de défaillance involontaire généralement avancés par la littérature théorique, en privilégiant le rôle joué par les erreurs d'anticipation de la demande commises par les entreprises. L'analyse théorique présentée permet de mettre en évidence un mécanisme de convergence plus ou moins stable de ces anticipations. L'impact des erreurs d' anticipation de la demande sur la probabilité de défaillance des entreprises est confirmé économétriquement en utilisant les enquêtes d'activité menées par l'Insee sur le secteur industriel entre 1977 et 1994. D'autres variables, décrivant le contexte démographique et financier des entreprises sur cette période sont également analysées.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.3406/ecop.1996.5803
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://www.persee.fr/articleAsPDF/ecop_0249-4744_1996_num_125_4_5803/ecop_0249-4744_1996_num_125_4_5803.pdf?mode=light
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

Volume (Year): 125 (1996)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 1-18

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1996_num_125_4_5803

Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1996.5803
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ecop

Related research

Keywords:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Michel Rainelli & Luc Marco, 1986. "« Les disparitions de firmes industrielles en France : un modèle économétrique »," Revue d'Économie Industrielle, Programme National Persée, vol. 36(1), pages 1-13.
  2. Myers, Stewart C, 1984. " The Capital Structure Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 575-92, July.
  3. Frank, Murray Z, 1988. "An Intertemporal Model of Industrial Exit," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(2), pages 333-44, May.
  4. Stewart C. Myers, 1984. "Capital Structure Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 1393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Castanias, Richard, 1983. " Bankruptcy Risk and Optimal Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1617-35, December.
  6. Régis Blazy & Jérôme Combier & Patricia Charlety, 1993. "Les défaillances d'entreprises : des difficultés visibles plusieurs années à l'avance," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 268(1), pages 101-111.
  7. White, Michelle J, 1989. "The Corporate Bankruptcy Decision," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 129-51, Spring.
  8. Paul Francis O'Brien & Frank Browne, 1992. "A "Credit Crunch"?: The Recent Slowdown in Bank Lending and Its Implications for Monetary Policy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 107, OECD Publishing.
  9. Wadhwani, Sushil B, 1986. "Inflation, Bankruptcy, Default Premia and the Stock Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(381), pages 120-38, March.
  10. repec:nsr:niesrd:54 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
  12. Myers, Stewart C., 1984. "Capital structure puzzle," Working papers 1548-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  13. Hudson, John & Cuthbertson, Keith, 1993. "The Determinants of Bankruptcies in the U.K.: 1971-1988," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 61(1), pages 65-81, March.
  14. de Leeuw, Frank & McKelvey, Michael J, 1984. "Price Expectations of Business Firms: Bias in the Short and Long Run," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(1), pages 99-110, March.
  15. Simmons, Peter, 1989. "Bad Luck and Fixed Costs in Personal Bankruptcies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 92-107, March.
  16. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1996_num_125_4_5803. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Equipe PERSEE).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.