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Mimétisme, erreurs d'anticipation de la demande et risque de défaillance des entreprises industrielles en France : un modèle économétrique à correction d'erreur

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  • Régis Blazy

Abstract

[fre] Mimétisme, erreurs d'anticipation de la demande et risque de défaillance des entreprises industrielles en France : un modèle économétrique à correction d'erreur . Régis Blazy . Notre étude relie entre eux les principaux facteurs explicatifs du processus de défaillance involontaire généralement avancés par la littérature théorique, en privilégiant le rôle joué par les erreurs d'anticipation de la demande commises par les entreprises. L'analyse théorique présentée permet de mettre en évidence un mécanisme de convergence plus ou moins stable de ces anticipations. L'impact des erreurs d' anticipation de la demande sur la probabilité de défaillance des entreprises est confirmé économétriquement en utilisant les enquêtes d'activité menées par l'Insee sur le secteur industriel entre 1977 et 1994. D'autres variables, décrivant le contexte démographique et financier des entreprises sur cette période sont également analysées. [eng] Imitation, Demand Expectation Errors and the Risk of Bankruptcy Among Industrial Firms in France: An . Econometric Error Correction Model . Régis Blazy . Our study links up the main explanatory factors generally put forward by theoretical literature as being behind the involuntary bankruptcy process by focusing on the role played by the demand expectation errors made by firms. The theoretical analysis presented posits a more or less stable convergence mechanism for these expectations. The effect of demand expectation errors on the probability of bankruptcy is econometrically confirmed using INSEE's business surveys of the industrial sector from 1977 to 1994. Other variables describing the legal, demographic and financial circumstances of firms during this period are also analysed.

Suggested Citation

  • Régis Blazy, 1996. "Mimétisme, erreurs d'anticipation de la demande et risque de défaillance des entreprises industrielles en France : un modèle économétrique à correction d'erreur," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 125(4), pages 1-18.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1996_num_125_4_5803
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.1996.5803
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1996.5803
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