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Government responses and COVID-19 deaths: Global evidence across multiple pandemic waves

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Hale
  • Noam Angrist
  • Andrew J Hale
  • Beatriz Kira
  • Saptarshi Majumdar
  • Anna Petherick
  • Toby Phillips
  • Devi Sridhar
  • Robin N Thompson
  • Samuel Webster
  • Yuxi Zhang

Abstract

We provide an assessment of the impact of government closure and containment measures on deaths from COVID-19 across sequential waves of the COVID-19 pandemic globally. Daily data was collected on a range of containment and closure policies for 186 countries from January 1, 2020 until March 11th, 2021. These data were combined into an aggregate stringency index (SI) score for each country on each day (range: 0–100). Countries were divided into successive waves via a mathematical algorithm to identify peaks and troughs of disease. Within our period of analysis, 63 countries experienced at least one wave, 40 countries experienced two waves, and 10 countries saw three waves, as defined by our approach. Within each wave, regression was used to assess the relationship between the strength of government stringency and subsequent deaths related to COVID-19 with a number of controls for time and country-specific demographic, health system, and economic characteristics. Across the full period of our analysis and 113 countries, an increase of 10 points on the SI was linked to 6 percentage points (P

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Hale & Noam Angrist & Andrew J Hale & Beatriz Kira & Saptarshi Majumdar & Anna Petherick & Toby Phillips & Devi Sridhar & Robin N Thompson & Samuel Webster & Yuxi Zhang, 2021. "Government responses and COVID-19 deaths: Global evidence across multiple pandemic waves," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(7), pages 1-14, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0253116
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0253116
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martine J. Sealy & Fons van der Lucht & Barbara C. van Munster & Wim P. Krijnen & Hans Hobbelen & Hans A. Barf & Evelyn J. Finnema & Harriët Jager-Wittenaar, 2022. "Frailty among Older People during the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic in The Netherlands," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(6), pages 1-15, March.
    2. Eva‐Maria Egger & Sam Jones & Patricia Justino & Ivan Manhique & Ricardo Santos, 2023. "Africa's lockdown dilemma: High poverty and low trust," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(7), pages 1648-1666, October.
    3. Gowokani Chijere Chirwa & Joe Maganga Zonda & Samantha Soyiyo Mosiwa & Jacob Mazalale, 2023. "Effect of government intervention in relation to COVID-19 cases and deaths in Malawi," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-7, December.
    4. Herby, Jonas & Jonung, Lars & Hanke, Steve, 2022. "A Literature Review and Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Lockdowns on Covid-19 Mortality - II," MPRA Paper 113732, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Andrés Ayala & Pablo Villalobos Dintrans & Felipe Elorrieta & Claudio Castillo & Claudio Vargas & Matilde Maddaleno, 2021. "Identification of COVID-19 Waves: Considerations for Research and Policy," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(21), pages 1-8, October.

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